Afghan fighting - the latest reports.

roninxix

War Hero
It’ll go tits up before you can say JDAM. There are several groups already opposing the deal, Jumbesh and Jamiate to name two. Dostum is doing his usual dancing about being sidelined and Atta Nor Mohamed in the north is none too pleased, despite publicly saying to the contrary.

It will most likely lead down the spiral of normal warlord led feudalism, yet again, and the situation will remain as exercise no change. Those provinces that aren’t already in Taliban hands will slowly fall and the worlds party capital will become an even larger over grown cesspit.

The intra-Afghan talks between the Talibs and GIRoA will be a cock measuring farce, just as the recent elections were. The international community here, especially the NGO community will slowly be poked by a large stick and squeezed for every last dime they have, and the idiots will pay as usual. UNAMA will continue to be a farce and when it all goes Pete Tong there’ll be no international military to call upon. ANSF won’t be able to bridge the gap and, eventually, the country will spiral back to where it was.

Edited due to mong spelling.
 
I'm no expert but I don't think an expert is needed to read the runes here. Corruption, feudalism, nepotism, stone age views, readily available arms/munitions, propensity for violence and once the moderating influence has gone well what does anyone expect?
Another Somalia, but without the pirate bits?
 
I'm no expert but I don't think an expert is needed to read the runes here. Corruption, feudalism, nepotism, stone age views, readily available arms/munitions, propensity for violence and once the moderating influence has gone well what does anyone expect?
They seem to have managed well enough in the years before 1973. A lot of US Aid in the fifties and Sixties improved the country a lot. It was only when the USSR started meddling and overthrew the Afghan King in the 1973 coup that the tribes started playing up.
 
I couldn’t agree more. Although I think funding is another factor. Whether the US (and the rest of the International Community) are willing to keep funding the Afghan state. If they are then they maintain leverage
Well those Afghan leaders have to keep there Swiss bank accounts topped up some how.
 
But what happens in Africa when they just revert to the default option of nationalise or seize the assets a la Zimbabwe. Will China send in the PLAs own version of the Afrika Korps.
as they own the port, they control the exports.
 
*sooner or later the west will stop paying, I’d prefer the afghans to be able to see it coming.
Agreed there. Why should my local library shut due to austerity and the government tell me I will have to pay for my own care in future despite paying taxes since I was fifteen while spaffing all this blood and treasure in Afghanistan for the last twenty years.

I dealt with my first Afghan asylum seeker over thirty years ago. The same with Somali's. None of them seem to have added greatly to the country in the meantime. Unlike the Ugandan and East African asians who have given us the very pretty Priti Patel.

The NGOs just add to the problem, they are just an industry. It's time for these countries to sort their s**t out. South Korea in 1961 was one of the poorest countries in the world, devasted from a civil war, and a cruel Japanese occupation. and a repressive military government. The other two poorest countries were Sudan and Ethiopia. Today they are a first world democracy with one of the highest GDP, A social security system, and a full human rights culture encluding equal rights for women. It's seen as a role model by other Asian countries, especially Vietnam. And it was all done by there own peaple working hard and fighting to reform their own government.

I am beginning to see the advantages of being a little Englander. It is time for these third world hell holes to realise that things are changing in Europe and the USA.

Anyway, rant over.
 
Likely deliberately low key on behalf of the MOD/FCO though. To quote someone else Not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.

Momentous sure - very hard to have ever seen this happening - but still so balanced and so many risks that it’s hard to see what it means.
All we need are helicopters evacuating the embassy staff. Withdrawal an inevitable outcome I think.
 
All we need are helicopters evacuating the embassy staff. Withdrawal an inevitable outcome I think.

Maybe. We shall see. Afghanistan has made fools of enough people and their predictions for me not to bother making any.

We were told the Taliban would be in Kabul months after the withdrawal in 2014. That never happened and now they are going to negotiate with a Govt they have, up until now, not recognised the existence of.

I’m pessimistic but wouldn’t begin to predict what will happen.
 
Maybe. We shall see. Afghanistan has made fools of enough people and their predictions for me not to bother making any.

We were told the Taliban would be in Kabul months after the withdrawal in 2014. That never happened and now they are going to negotiate with a Govt they have, up until now, not recognised the existence of.

I’m pessimistic but wouldn’t begin to predict what will happen.
that’s a fair point, we can’t begin to guess what the future of the country might hold.

I’m going to go with an earlier suggestion I made about the Ukraine, if only for consistency

 
Maybe. We shall see. Afghanistan has made fools of enough people and their predictions for me not to bother making any.

We were told the Taliban would be in Kabul months after the withdrawal in 2014. That never happened and now they are going to negotiate with a Govt they have, up until now, not recognised the existence of.

I’m pessimistic but wouldn’t begin to predict what will happen.
Fair points but it's still about getting the feck out of there ASAP and see @roninxix 's post - they're a factious set of peoples to say the least.
 
Well those Afghan leaders have to keep there Swiss bank accounts topped up some how.
Or a quick hop on the Emirates plane from Kabul to Dubai to partake in nightly activity and drop of some dosh there as well.
 
It was on Sky News 20 minutes ago. Maybe the Sunday papers will pick up the story?
that was written before it was official and was really referring to what little has been made of the tentative peace process.
Even after the story broke the BBC only listed it beneath a couple of corona virus stories and a report about the home office chief civil servant resigning.
 
there’ll be **** all dosh to drop off once NATO buggers off
So true. Whilst I hope there is some solution I think as others have said this is just a US only positive outcome. I doubt no other NATO rep was present or involved in the discussions. I think there maybe a little clause that allows BAF to be kept with reduced manpower, which may slip out later.
 
Dubai seems to have a reputation as a bit of an Islamic R&R centre.
If you go into the houses of Taliban and AQ fighters they have posters of Dubai on the walls. It’s their version of what Kabul would look like if it wasn’t for all that pesky Western interference and aid money
 
Dubai seems to have a reputation as a bit of an Islamic R&R centre.
In Dubai contrary to what the Daily Mail and uninformed people say, you can do anything, just dont get caught!
 

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