Afghan fighting - the latest reports.

We'll see whether it makes it as far as the end of the month.

'The United States and the Taliban have agreed to sign a peace deal next week aimed at ending 18 years of war in Afghanistan and bringing US troops home, wrapping up America's longest-running conflict and fulfilling one of President Donald Trump's main campaign promises.

'The planned February 29 signing depends on the success of a week-long nationwide "reduction in violence" agreement in which all sides have committed to end attacks. It is due to start at midnight Friday local time (1930 GMT), according to an Afghan official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk to the media.


 
Quite a lengthy article, but explores an element of the 'New Great Game' that doesn't get too many column inches in the western press.

'A withdrawal of US troops could pave the way for a return of Uygur militants and reignite violence in Xinjiang. But trying to fill American boots would aggravate Beijing’s rivalry with the US and Washington’s resistance to the Belt and Road Initiative.'

 
Do the brits & other "foreighn"advisers & trainers have any say in all this?
Minimal - US/Taliban and (for the sake of window-dressing) GIRoA; the rest of us are just along for the ride and to deal with the fallout.
 

Poppycock

Clanker
We'll see whether it makes it as far as the end of the month.

....

'The planned February 29 signing depends on the success of a week-long nationwide "reduction in violence" agreement in which all sides have committed to end attacks. It is due to start at midnight Friday local time (1930 GMT)
This is edge of your seat stuff
  • A successful 'reduction in violence' week
  • Shenanigans in Kabul this week (all sorts of meetings)
  • NATO members don't know if they're coming or going
  • A 'virtual decapitation of Intel community' in the US
  • All eyes on Doha tomorrow...
 
Quite a lengthy article, but explores an element of the 'New Great Game' that doesn't get too many column inches in the western press.

'A withdrawal of US troops could pave the way for a return of Uygur militants and reignite violence in Xinjiang. But trying to fill American boots would aggravate Beijing’s rivalry with the US and Washington’s resistance to the Belt and Road Initiative.'

Afghanistan is closer to China than the US and UK. Let them sort the place out together with their best mates - Pakistan if they are worried about the Uygurs. Its time to stop pouring money down a bottomless pit and invest it in our own infrastucture, and concentrate on Trade and defence with our traditional allies, like the Five eyes nations, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore/Malaysia.

I can see all this money Chiina is spaffing on the belt and roads thing going t*ts up when all these third world basket cases default.
 
This is edge of your seat stuff
  • A successful 'reduction in violence' week
  • Shenanigans in Kabul this week (all sorts of meetings)
  • NATO members don't know if they're coming or going
  • A 'virtual decapitation of Intel community' in the US
  • All eyes on Doha tomorrow...
And the hard work is yet to start. Much has been made of how it will all be fine when it turns to “intra- Afghan” talks. The elections are the epitome of an Afghan led,Afghan owned process and they’ve made a complete balls up of that on every occasion.
 
And the hard work is yet to start. Much has been made of how it will all be fine when it turns to “intra- Afghan” talks. The elections are the epitome of an Afghan led,Afghan owned process and they’ve made a complete balls up of that on every occasion.
I don’t think that anyone has said that intra Afghan talks will be easy but they are necessary.
 
I don’t think that anyone has said that intra Afghan talks will be easy but they are necessary.
my fear is that the US won’t really be interested in the outcomes from the talks as they're further along the in the process and allows them to begin drawing down. As long as the militants show willing it’ll be enough. I can’t see anything happening which means the US say “this hasn’t worked, we’re putting more troops back in”
 
my fear is that the US won’t really be interested in the outcomes from the talks as they're further along the in the process and allows them to begin drawing down. As long as the militants show willing it’ll be enough. I can’t see anything happening which means the US say “this hasn’t worked, we’re putting more troops back in”
I couldn’t agree more. Although I think funding is another factor. Whether the US (and the rest of the International Community) are willing to keep funding the Afghan state. If they are then they maintain leverage
 
I couldn’t agree more. Although I think funding is another factor. Whether the US (and the rest of the International Community) are willing to keep funding the Afghan state. If they are then they maintain leverage
I hope something like funding can be included as part of any withdrawal agreement with the afghan government, possibly a model which seems funding draw down over time*
Im hoping for the best with these negotiations but I feel like we’re watching another afghan civil war (or rather, it’s continuation without NATO) begin to unfold before us.

I’ve been saying we should leave Afghanistan for the best part of a decade, but even then I still find the whole thing unpalatable and tragic.


*sooner or later the west will stop paying, I’d prefer the afghans to be able to see it coming.
 
I'm no expert but I don't think an expert is needed to read the runes here. Corruption, feudalism, nepotism, stone age views, readily available arms/munitions, propensity for violence and once the moderating influence has gone well what does anyone expect?
 
I hope something like funding can be included as part of any withdrawal agreement with the afghan government, possibly a model which seems funding draw down over time*
Im hoping for the best with these negotiations but I feel like we’re watching another afghan civil war (or rather, it’s continuation without NATO) begin to unfold before us.

I’ve been saying we should leave Afghanistan for the best part of a decade, but even then I still find the whole thing unpalatable and tragic.


*sooner or later the west will stop paying, I’d prefer the afghans to be able to see it coming.
Well we will see. Realistically this is the best opportunity for the Taliban to be part of an Afghan State and for departure of NATO forces to be under mutually agreed terms. It seems that they realise that.
 
Well we will see. Realistically this is the best opportunity for the Taliban to be part of an Afghan State and for departure of NATO forces to be under mutually agreed terms. It seems that they realise that.
it’s worth a shot. Worst case is the war continues without western forces, influence and cash being added to the mix.

I can only hope that there is a degree of exhaustion on the side of the militants as well as with no clear winner it’s the only hope I can see for a lasting peace.
 
It’s also disheartening just how little interest there is about this in the UK/media
Likely deliberately low key on behalf of the MOD/FCO though. To quote someone else Not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.

Momentous sure - very hard to have ever seen this happening - but still so balanced and so many risks that it’s hard to see what it means.
 
Oh no, this means a certain military cannot now keep sending only SNCO's and Officers and no JNCO's/Ptes on tour to pull in the NATO extra money!!
 

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