A real indicator of the election result

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Ord_Sgt, Apr 9, 2005.

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  1. Ord_Sgt

    Ord_Sgt RIP

    From an on-line polling website, received in my email today.

    Thank you for voting in our OneBigVote poll.

    Most of the polls you see in national newspapers are based on small samples of responders, nothing like the 28,000+ people who have responded to OneBigVote. Your answers have contributed to some very interesting results that we would like to share with you below.

    Conservatives dominate poll with 35% of the votes

    Over a third of voters claim that they will opt for the Conservative party in this General Election whilst just under 50% will be split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. 8% are undecided or will not vote and the 'other' parties sweep up the remaining 10% of voters.
    How do you intend to vote in the next General Election?
    (How did you vote in the 2001 General Election)

    Conservative - 34.73% (21.89%)
    Labour - 23.77% (34.31%)
    Liberal Democrats - 23.62% (14.35%)
    Will not vote - 3.09%
    Undecided - 4.81%
    Other - 9.98%

    1 in 5 choose Michael Howard over Blair as choice for Prime Minister

    The poll also revealed that Michael Howard is the favourite candidate to lead the country for the next five years. The current Prime Minister, Tony Blair, is placed third after his party colleague Gordon Brown.

    Voters will not change their minds

    Voters do appear to have made up their mind, as 91% are not at all likely, or not very likely to change their vote whilst as for the success of the parties campaigning so far, the majority, 64%, feel insufficiently communicated to from the various parties and that their vote is not being fought for.

    Looks possible that the liar might actually get the boot.


    Hourly updates here http://www1.onebigvote.co.uk/Results/ResultOver18.htm
  2. Very Interesting,

    One can hope the figures hold up on Polling day , now that would be reason to rejoice :)
  3. Excellent news here - as above, let's hope the stats stay the same - or increase!
  4. I've just added my vote for Ken Livingstone as PM. Hopfully his percentage will overtake Bliar's and really annoy him.
  5. Thanks mate, thats made my day!

    Now off to see what the soapdodgers at U75 thyink of that! :wink:
  6. Pop! Back to the top!

    Current votes are as follows:

    Won't vote 2.83 %
    Undecided 4.69 %
    Conservative 35.2 %
    Labour 23.23 %
    Liberal Democrat 23.84 %
    UK Independent 1.75 %
    Scottish National Party 2.16 %
    Plaid Cymru 0.55 %
    Ulster Unionist Party 0.23 %
    Sinn Fein 0.27 %
    Social Democratic & Labour Party 0.45 %
    Democratic Unionist Party 0.38 %
    Other party 4.12 %
    Veritas 0.3 %

    which gives the following seat dirstibution : ###BBC site being funny, when it works I'll edit - unless someone else gets there 1st - enter LAB 23.23 CON 35.2 LD 23.84 OTHER 10.21 (this figure for other is corrected to take out the "don't know" and "undecided" voters - the BBC site then automatically scales it back to 100%####
  7. Hopefully the BBC have got it right, Put both NOP And populus at 40% For Lab and tory 30%. Gotta keep howard out! Right Out


  8. The OneBigVote findings correlate with the local and Euro election results last year.

    I trust MORI and YouGov more than the other polls as they only feature those who will vote. They tend to show a Labour lead of about 3% but I think that hidden Tory voters mean a deficit for Labour of -1% or -2% or so. Labour will remain the largest party with an ungovernable majority of 40 or so, at best. A minority Labour government is also possible.

    You can print off sheets from Electoral Calculus to tick off on election night.

  9. Ripper, I'm amazed that your hate for Howard is such that you seem to be willing to forgive Tony his record....

    Frankly, I think that Blair out has to be the over-riding concern. At least if Howard gets in, there'll be a chance to vote him out again in 2009; with Blair I'm not so sure...
  10. I know that a lot of people dont approve of howard because of his history, but i am so pissed off with Blair and labour that i would rather see the drunken Gwar in power than blair!

    Lets give someone else a chance in power, and then if they are crap, vote them out. It's called democracy!
  11. Unknown_Quantity

    Unknown_Quantity War Hero Moderator

    I will not be voting Labour partly because of Blairs record with the truth and the fiasco of the fox hunting debate (900 hrs for bloody Basil?) but also because I do not want to see grasping Gordon in charge of the country. If there was a box to cross on the ballot paper to say that I didn't like any of the current crop of candidates then that would get my cross.
  12. Hmmmm... according to this Labour are now in 3rd place! Wouldn't that be so good :) Though I do wonder how many folk have voted on this and what "type" of people have voted.
  13. I wish it is true.

    However what sort of swing does the tories need to win? is it over 10%?

    Next question: there apears to be wide spread postal fraud, can you see a Ukrainian/Uzbekistan style action? Or do you think the populace will just bend over and take it from behind, like they normaly do?

    Also I'm stil ltrying to decide who to vote for!
    Do I vote taticly and go libdems, as that will most likley lose this seat to labour, and give the tories a chance, or do I go with my heart?

    Gahhhhh, the agnoy of choice.
  14. Ask yourself how much you want labour out, and if you do, then vote for the most likely party to beat them in your neighbourhood.
  15. If you want 'regime change' and the lib dems are in the most likely position to take the seat from labour then of course you do.

    Remember it's seats that count not overall share of the vote, so if you can help take the seat from the incumbent then it is one less seat that the party he or she represents can win.