A hard brexit trade proposal

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LE
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Interestingly the talk in The Times is that everyone in government is going for free trade except Gove who has been got at by the farmers who desperately want protection.
Indeed the NFU has been briefing against Brexit from the beginning. The scare stories the staff on the estate come out with can only come from one source. Its sad really!
 
Indeed the NFU has been briefing against Brexit from the beginning. The scare stories the staff on the estate come out with can only come from one source. Its sad really!
Well the CAP is the biggest government sponsorship of loss making industry ever. It makes running coal mines and car factories and nationalised railways look like chicken feed. So it's hardly surprising that they're scared, but if NZ can manage it [a country that is effectively nothing but farms] I'm sure we can. I have a relative who worked in the NZ Min of Ag and Fish negotiating trade deals for NZ meat exports, his comment was "The world isn't over supplied with food you just need to work out who wants something you can produce".
 
Published by: Fiona Cincotta, CityIndex, FXSTREET, 06 March 2019.

Carney: Britain better prepared for no-deal Brexit.

Britain is now better prepared for a no-deal Brexit than a few months ago and if the abrupt departure from the EU still materializes it may end up being a disorderly event rather than a disruptive one, according to BoE governor Mark Carney. Briefing a House of Lords committee yesterday he said that authorities have taken steps to protect derivative markets, reduce financial risk and minimize trade frictions.

Sterling traders seem to be echoing that view with the pound trading above $1.31, although the currency did weaken this morning against both the dollar and the euro. This weakening process, however, has more to do with a longer term economic outlook for Britain and the current level of inflation that remains above the BoE’s target than with Brexit. Carney noted that investors had not priced in enough monetary tightening ahead and that the bank might have to send a clearer signal to the market about the future direction of interest rates.

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Carney: Britain better prepared for no-deal Brexit
 
Published by: Allister Heath, the Telegraph, on 06 March 2019.

'A clean break with the EU is the only sustainable solution'.

If the Treasury was being honest, it would admit that EU membership has made little difference to our prosperity

Like almost everybody who voted for Brexit, I wanted to leave the EU with a trade deal. I certainly assumed that we would: it is in both sides’ interests, and EU manufacturers and farmers do especially well from the present arrangements.

I thought the Government would negotiate robustly and sensibly, following Vote Leave’s advice not to trigger Article 50 until the outlines of a deal had been agreed, all the while preparing for a hard exit. I expected the EU to realise that a refusal to play ball would mean a calamitous financial, defence and security hit.

It wasn’t to be. The abject lack of leadership provided by the Prime Minister, the Government’s staggering refusal to leverage the UK’s strengths, its bovine nastiness on the rights of EU citizens and, of course, the fact that so many on the UK side were trying to reverse Brexit, all combined to deliver the greatest failure of British statecraft since Suez.

The EU was emboldened into laying a series of traps into which we jumped enthusiastically, with what ought to have been the minor issue of Northern Ireland’s border turned into a case study in technocratic sabotage.

What now? Tory Remainers are in full swing, threatening either a delay or permanent membership of the customs union and single market – in other words, no Brexit – if MPs don’t sign up to the Prime Minister’s appalling deal. We must hope that, against all the odds, Parliament doesn’t fall for this madness.

Like most Leave voters, my position has hardened. I still don’t relish the idea of leaving without a deal, but I’m now, for the first time, reconciled to doing so. As matters stand, a so-called no-deal (in reality, we’ve already agreed lots of mini-deals) would be our least bad option. It wouldn’t be pretty, especially for one or two industries, but would probably cost just 1-2 per cent of GDP . . .

https://premium.telegraph.co.uk/newsletter/article4/its-a-complete-myth-that-a-no-deal-brexit-would-cripple-the-british-economy/?WT.mc_id=e_DM962033&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg_2019_03_09&utm_campaign=DM962033
 

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LE
Book Reviewer
Moving forward
Breaking:

Liam Fox has confounded his critics by signing a “trade continuity deal”...

....with Papua New Guinea and Fiji

Fox: “I am delighted.”
 
Published by: RTE, on Monday, 15 Apr 2019.

EU countries give clearance to start US trade talks.

European Union countries have given final clearance to start formal trade talks with the United States after months of delay due to French resistance.

In the end, the EU governments voted by a clear majority to approve the negotiating mandates proposed by the European Commission, with France voting against and Belgium abstaining.

The Commission, which coordinates trade policy for the 28-member European Union, wants to start negotiations on two tracks - one to cut tariffs on industrial goods, the other to make it easier for companies to show products meet EU or US standards.

It needed backing from the EU member states to do so.

The European Union and the United States reached a detente last July when US President Donald Trump agreed to hold off imposing punitive tariffs on EU cars as the two sides sought to improve economic ties.

That including removing tariffs on "non-auto industrial goods".

The Commission has repeatedly said it will not discuss tariffs or barriers to trade in farm products, but is willing to discuss cars, setting it on a possible collision course with Washington.

The Trump administration has a wide-ranging wish list, including comprehensive agricultural market access.

Diplomats say Germany, whose exports of cars and parts to the United States are more than half the EU total, wants to press ahead with talks to ward off tariffs on car makers Volkswagen, Mercedes maker Daimler and BMW.

France, with very few US car exports, had been seeking to push the issue beyond the European Parliament election in May, convinced that dealing with President Trump is not a vote winner.

France has insisted that agriculture should not feature in the talks but that climate change provisions should - a difficult demand given Trump's withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.

View attachment 388122

EU give clearance to start US trade talks
 
 
Published by: RTE, on Monday, 15 Apr 2019.

EU countries give clearance to start US trade talks.

European Union countries have given final clearance to start formal trade talks with the United States after months of delay due to French resistance.

In the end, the EU governments voted by a clear majority to approve the negotiating mandates proposed by the European Commission, with France voting against and Belgium abstaining.

The Commission, which coordinates trade policy for the 28-member European Union, wants to start negotiations on two tracks - one to cut tariffs on industrial goods, the other to make it easier for companies to show products meet EU or US standards.

It needed backing from the EU member states to do so.

The European Union and the United States reached a detente last July when US President Donald Trump agreed to hold off imposing punitive tariffs on EU cars as the two sides sought to improve economic ties.

That including removing tariffs on "non-auto industrial goods".

The Commission has repeatedly said it will not discuss tariffs or barriers to trade in farm products, but is willing to discuss cars, setting it on a possible collision course with Washington.

The Trump administration has a wide-ranging wish list, including comprehensive agricultural market access.

Diplomats say Germany, whose exports of cars and parts to the United States are more than half the EU total, wants to press ahead with talks to ward off tariffs on car makers Volkswagen, Mercedes maker Daimler and BMW.

France, with very few US car exports, had been seeking to push the issue beyond the European Parliament election in May, convinced that dealing with President Trump is not a vote winner.

France has insisted that agriculture should not feature in the talks but that climate change provisions should - a difficult demand given Trump's withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.

View attachment 388122

EU give clearance to start US trade talks
From what I've read, the EU is only interested is a very limited trade treaty with the US, not a wide ranging one. And of course even that may go nowhere. It's basically just amounts to stalling without actually saying "no".

The main matter of concern for the EU is to head off US tariffs on Germany cars. Of course the way the US is operating these days they may agree to free trade in cars and then put huge tariffs on European car imports anyway, despite what the treaty says.
 
 
From what I've read, the EU is only interested is a very limited trade treaty with the US, not a wide ranging one. And of course even that may go nowhere. It's basically just amounts to stalling without actually saying "no".

The main matter of concern for the EU is to head off US tariffs on Germany cars. Of course the way the US is operating these days they may agree to free trade in cars and then put huge tariffs on European car imports anyway, despite what the treaty says.
If agriculture is closed, then you can bet the German auto industry is going to get kicked.
So either the French get sacrificed or the Germans.
 
If agriculture is closed, then you can bet the German auto industry is going to get kicked.
So either the French get sacrificed or the Germans.
And the EU can retaliate with increased tariffs of their own. As a EU official already said with respect to Trumponomics "we can also do stupid" in retaliation. Trump has already hiked tariffs on the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China, but all of those countries have in turn hiked tariffs on an equivalent amount of American goods, all carefully selected to impose the greatest possible pain on the parts of the US where Trump's support base is.

You now have most of the world slapping huge tariffs on goods from the US, but not between each other. That means that everyone except the US can trade freely, while the US is being increasingly isolated and US trade being shut out from the rest of the world. Congratulations Trump, you now have something else in common with Kim Jong-un besides a bad haircut.
 
USA - Rich in resources and has the ablity to be self sufficient.

Europe - Not so much.

It'll be interesting to see who folds first, if nothing else.
 
USA - Rich in resources and has the ablity to be self sufficient.

Europe - Not so much.

It'll be interesting to see who folds first, if nothing else.
Europe doesn't need to be self sufficient as they're not the ones cutting themselves off from the rest of the world.
 
Sure. Who needs US goods anyway? I'm sure the Apple/Microsoft and other technology addicted will be just fine.
 
And the EU can retaliate with increased tariffs of their own. As a EU official already said with respect to Trumponomics "we can also do stupid" in retaliation. Trump has already hiked tariffs on the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China, but all of those countries have in turn hiked tariffs on an equivalent amount of American goods, all carefully selected to impose the greatest possible pain on the parts of the US where Trump's support base is.

You now have most of the world slapping huge tariffs on goods from the US, but not between each other. That means that everyone except the US can trade freely, while the US is being increasingly isolated and US trade being shut out from the rest of the world. Congratulations Trump, you now have something else in common with Kim Jong-un besides a bad haircut.
Oh my, but you have a few small problems.
We keep chugging along, Germany’s economy is expected to grow at .05 percent this year. Slapping their auto industry will send the EU into a recession.

Everybody (minus you course) likes American culture, and thus our goods.

Trump country has been used to getting economically shafted for the past 20 years. They have somebody who will punch back.
How much pain will the average Euro endure before you have more morning and striking?
 

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