40 years and then its on your bike - apparently!

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
#1
#2
I read somewhere that it took something like 3 million years to lay down enough oil to meet a single year's demand. Mind you there's a bunch of Russians who believe that oil is produced in the Earth's core and seeps towards the surface, suspiciously like wishful thinking to me.

It won't get the Cousins out of their V8 pickups though.
 
#3
Best we shut all our nuclear power plants down as they are dangerous then. Oh sorry this is the UK not Germany.....
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
#4
I'm glad I intend to end it before it comes, it will be an interesting few decades though
 
#5
But why did it take Grumblegrunt 4 years to start his thread?

The article's dated 14 June 2007.
 
#6
If this did ever happen, then it's the third world country's who would reign supreme , as they are the only culture who could cope with such a apoplectic scenario.
 
#7
If this did ever happen, then it's the third world country's who would reign supreme , as they are the only culture who could cope with such a apoplectic scenario.
I suspect that it would be the opposite. Without oil, they wouldn't be receiving aid and pharmaceuticals. Nor would they be able to transport their produce to the larger consumers - the 1st and 2nd Worlds.

Add in diesel-powered water pumps, tractors, local generators, paraffin heaters/lights...
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
#8
But why did it take Grumblegrunt 4 years to start his thread?

The article's dated 14 June 2007.
probably because I wouldnt have read the original at the time as work didnt get the indy (just torygraph, grauinad and the daily wail) and its been re-flagged up for some reason. still valid reading and explains why they are going mad for fracking and other dubious practices.

I can change it to 36 years and its on your bike :)

chances are its wrong though as they bring this arguament up quite regularly based on current stocks, siberia has huge reserves which they cant get to and they havent managed true deep ocean drilling yet.
 
#9
Depends how fast we use it. Military vehicles probably account for quite a lot, not helped by the US foraying across half the globe. It'd be greener to stick to local wars.
 
#10
If this did ever happen, then it's the third world country's who would reign supreme , as they are the only culture who could cope with such a apoplectic scenario.
I don't if I'd say most third world countries are in any way really 'coping' at the moment and will struggle much more when the first worlds trying to stop its own people from starving. In the best case scenario we simply cut all aid, in the worst case we'll be taking what we need from them with whats left of our militaries if not setting up full blown colonies. Once the oil goes its bad news for everyone unless a hell of alot of work gets done in everything from transport to agriculture in the next few decades.
 
#11
probably because I wouldnt have read the original at the time as work didnt get the indy (just torygraph, grauinad and the daily wail) and its been re-flagged up for some reason. still valid reading and explains why they are going mad for fracking and other dubious practices.

I can change it to 36 years and its on your bike :)

chances are its wrong though as they bring this arguament up quite regularly based on current stocks, siberia has huge reserves which they cant get to and they havent managed true deep ocean drilling yet.
WAH.........
 
#13
If this did ever happen, then it's the third world country's who would reign supreme , as they are the only culture who could cope with such a apoplectic scenario.
I actually blame the Third World countries for the fuel famine, it's their selfish wants that are feeding the problem. They don't need our resources, if they used the millions of dead babies they produce every year as fuel then we in the west would be better supplied for oil. Bastards.
 
#15
I remember being told in school that there was only ever 15 yrs worth of oil readily availabe at any one time, there's plenty of oil left it's just getting harder to find and more expensive to exploit.
There's a place (in Canada I seem to remember) where there's a huge ammount of oil, centuries worth, it's just that it comes as saturated sand, now it's very possible to get it out it's just wasn't worth it for the price per barrel of oil, price goes up and all of a sudden it becomes viable.


BTW Opec and other oil producers LOVE it when there is real worry that oil will run out.
 
#17
Just thought it would be a good idea to throw some "latest Figure" into the mix - the table shows the reserves as at 2010 (latest figures available).

If you look at the figures for say the USA they have 3.3 Trillian cubic m of oil in reserve and they are producing 1.57 million cub m per day, this works out at only around 5.8 years.. so something does not add up. Maybe they are expecting to discover more in the near future, but if they dont, then if you add up all the figures for reserves and production, and take out those with less than say 20 years reserves, By 2030 we will have approx 80 years of reserves left in the world IF and that is really an impossible IF, the world requirement stays at 2010 levels, and we all know its rising exponentially, The USA is the biggest user at around 108 million cubic m per day with china second on around half that, India at present is using around 20 million cubm, per day. If as is expected, China and India more than double their requirement and the USA stays where it is now, we will suddenly find that the world has less than 40 years of known reserves left(post 2030). And these include reserves that are going to be expensive and difficult to bring to the surface.

The oil shale in alaska may bring assistance, but reading the reports about what is happening to the water table by the means they use for extraction, I am not sure that they have yet found the solution for that.
 
#19
My previous post seems to have gone adrift...

The era of cheap (ish) oil is gone, it no longer bubbles up a la Beverly Hillbillies in many places in the world. The Deep Water Horizon situation shows the lengths we now have to go to in order to retrive some. The oil sands in Canada are raping that area and use a lot of energy to actually extract it anyway. As has been written above, the US Mil are big users and are actively seeking alternatives, so are we (see:- http://www.arrse.co.uk/science-forum/156959-green-energy-fobs-can-you-help.html)
If anyone is interested in what might have to happen a look here:- YouTube - ‪The Power of Community ( Spanish Subtitles )‬‏ could cheer you up. Cheap oil from the old USSR dried up for Cuba and a life on heavily subsidised products and exports did too. The US of course didn't want them to keep going so made it a bit hard for them too. Peak Oil well before it really happened through economic measures. Change Peak for Very Expensive if you have you head in the sand reagrding Peak and you'll see what we may be up against.
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
#20
As soon as you see anything pushing 'Peak Oil' theory, wrap your fish and chips in it. No-one alive now is going to survive the hydrocarbon age - even if we doubled current usage tomorrow. Gas will simply take over the workload from oil, that's why the Krauts were prepared to jettison nuclear.
 

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