ARmy Rumour SErvice

On Salon New mass protests planned in Egypt by Natasha Lennard

But it's not exactly a sign of the religious vs. secular "war" that some say is brewing

Tensions between Egypt's opposing political factions are flaring up. A report by the Guardian suggests that a "war" is developing between the nation's Islamist and secular political forces, as the leftist, secular faction "threatened to bring mass pro-democracy protests back to Cairo, with a "million-strong" occupation of Tahrir Square planned for 8 July unless the ruling army generals abandon their current "roadmap" to democracy."

As the Guardian notes:

Campaigners fear the existing post-Mubarak transition program – which would see September's ballot held under an amended version of Egypt's existing constitution and then allow members of parliament to oversee the writing of a new constitution – may cede permanent power to the Muslim Brotherhood and other religious groups, who are expected to dominate the poll.

Egypt's interim prime minister, Essam Sharaf -- in line with the desires of secular groups -- suggested elections could be delayed to allow the nation's "political landscape," but has since emphasized that the election timetable will not be changed (hence the proposed July 8th protests). Fierce disagreements about the when the constitution will be written and what it will include continue too.

However, the leftist community calling for actions next month seems more concerned with keeping the revolution strong, rather than focusing on the tensions between Egypt's religious and secular groups.

On a Facebook page titled "The 2nd revolution of anger" followed by 55,000 members, the AFP reports, activists urge that the aims of the original uprising -- the foundation of a new Egypt -- be emphasized:

To all rival political forces debating which should come first, constitution or elections, save your revolution first, save Egypt first. Our revolution is collapsing.

This is not to say that concerns about the elections and the new constitution do not also fall along Islamist vs. secular lines -- this seems irrefutable -- but rather that activists in Egypt remain above all committed to the protest movement staying strong and relevant in order to stave off future oppressive regimes taking control of a currently febrile nation.

The MB has solid middle class support and a well established party apparatus, their left of center opponents who where at the forefront of the protests are a diverse and entirely unprepared for an electoral fight.

The Egyptian left lost the recent constitutional referendum that prepared the ground for elections in the summer by a 70 point landslide. This is a very conservative country, with the arrival of Junta backed free and fair elections reactionary Islamists may well be the key power block that shape its future. That probably means one with Sharia law as the basis for all law and a passive aggressive attitude to Israel.

Revolutions often fade with the party of the landlords slipping into the divers seat. The Brotherhood and the generals are the rentiers in Egypt.

I'd rather see the Brotherhood than the generals, I think, for Egypt's sake. The generals have had since 1956 to sort their shit out, and it hasn't worked. The beards might be worth a shot, with the knowledge that the generals are in the background, Turkey-style, if it all gets too hairy.

Originally Posted by Rumpelstiltskin

I'd rather see the Brotherhood than the generals, I think, for Egypt's sake. The generals have had since 1956 to sort their shit out, and it hasn't worked. The beards might be worth a shot, with the knowledge that the generals are in the background, Turkey-style, if it all gets too hairy.

Any representation is better than a Junta and the Brothers, like HA in Lebanon, know complete control is beyond their grasp. While the Islamists actually agenda is unclear their entusiasm for free elections seems entirely genuine and there is no sign of a Khomeini style event brewing.

The Generals seem to have done a deal with the MB to keep the restive plebs in line. They are doing exactly what Pindi has done with Pakistans much less popular reactionary Islamist parties. In this situation Tantawi is wise to keep his guiding hand somewhat concealed, the armies prestige will be untainted. As with Turkey deep reform won't happen until the army is edged out of power by competent civilians, that may take a long time.

It may be better for Egypt's young progressives if the Brothers vigorously participate in power now rather than later. Whatever government Egypt gets will fail to reach the revolutions expectations. Egypt's structural problems are severe, they'll take decades to fix and further unrest seems likely.

U.S. fares poorly in first modern polling of Egyptian views By Hannah Allam | McClatchy Newspapers

CAIRO — Egyptians largely reject U.S. involvement in Egypt and appear split on whether to extend the longstanding peace treaty with neighboring Israel. They overwhelmingly support the revolution and are eager to vote without delay, but haven't yet identified a trusted party or politician to steer the nation toward their vision of an Islam-compatible democracy.

That's the portrait emerging of Egypt's millions-strong electorate as the country prepares for the first vote since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, according to survey results released in recent weeks by U.S. polling firms. With no single group garnering more than 15 percent of public support and the majority of voters still undecided, the poll results augur a closely contested parliamentary election this fall.

Until this year, such detailed polling was unheard of here — the government strictly controlled what questions outside pollsters could ask. Anything that might have exposed Mubarak's deep unpopularity and Egyptians' pent-up rage over rampant corruption, police brutality and poverty was strictly off limits.

Now, however, polling firms have a mostly free hand to ask what they will — though they apparently still aren't allowed to probe whether the Egyptian military, which runs the country, should continue receiving billions of dollars in aid from the United States. Surveyors have rushed in to take advantage, some even setting up permanent offices in Cairo. Poll workers are crisscrossing the country, popping up in urban slums and rural villages with questions on once-taboo topics.

The result is an unprecedented look at voter attitudes in the Arab world's most populous country.

"Confidence in the military, confidence in the judicial system, corruption in government — all of that used to be out," said Dalia Mogahed, director of the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and a member of U.S. President Barack Obama's faith-based partnerships advisory council. "We really have seen an opening and a dramatic improvement that allows us to ask, basically, whatever we want."

Results already are out from three major scientific surveys — the Pew Research Center, Gallup and International Republican Institute — as well as from a rash of informal polls conducted by nonprofit groups, local newspaper websites and blogs.

Even Egypt's interim military rulers have jumped on the poll bandwagon, posting a survey last week on their official Facebook page that asked Egyptians to choose their favorite presidential candidate from a list of leading contenders. Professional pollsters dismissed the military's survey as unscientific and limited only to the estimated one-fifth of Egyptians with Internet access; activists complained that the generals were trying to influence elections.

Egyptian web users, however, appeared eager to participate. As of Saturday, more than 185,000 had "voted," with Nobel laureate and former U.N. atomic energy chief Mohamed ElBaradei in the lead. (None of the scientific polls showed ElBaradei with comparable popular support.)

"We have more than 40 million eligible voters and such polls could never reflect the opinions of people living in the countryside who are sometimes illiterate or have no access to the Internet," complained a skeptical Amr Darrag, a senior officer in the Muslim Brotherhood's new Freedom and Justice Party.

Across the board, the more scientific polls' findings reveal a cautiously hopeful Egypt where citizens are happy Mubarak is gone and half as likely now to seek opportunities in another country. Residents express high support for democracy and civil liberties, but are more concerned with the immediate struggles of finding jobs, improving security and feeding their families.

The results also challenge some widely held notions about Egyptian participation and awareness of the anti-Mubarak uprising. Contrary to the narrative of a "Facebook revolution," for example, the vast majority of Egyptians followed the rebellion through television or word of mouth. Twitter, one poll found, "barely registered."

In a result that startled some secular politicians, Egyptians said they were in favor of religious figures playing an advisory role in a democratic government that's "informed by religious values," according to survey results. But for all the fears over Islamists filling the political void, poll findings showed that the Muslim Brotherhood and other religious groups face stiff competition from moderates and liberals.

"This shows us that the coming government most probably will be a coalition government and not controlled by one trend," said Wael Nawara, a senior member of the liberal Democratic Front Party, who's studied the results to better understand constituents. "But it also tells us we need a presidential government, not a parliamentary one, or we might suffer coalition-government problems and start facing the challenges of instability."

Mogahed said Gallup has polled in Egypt for the past decade, albeit with severe restrictions on questioning. Egypt's poll-monitoring body, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, used to strike 30 or more questions from Gallup surveys, she said, and that was even after the firm self-censored to avoid broaching presidential succession, government corruption and other red lines.

For the latest Gallup poll, "Egypt from Tahrir to Transition," the government agency banned only a couple of questions, including one about whether Egyptians support U.S. military aid, Mogahed said. The matter is an especially prickly one for the typically reclusive generals who, as the interim rulers of Egypt, are forced to respond to the revolutionaries' demand to wean the nation from a longtime reliance on foreign aid. Egypt receives an annual U.S. aid package of up to $2 billion, the second highest after Israel.

The Gallup poll found that 75 percent of Egyptians oppose U.S. aid to political groups, and 68 percent think the United States will try to exert direct influence over Egypt's political future. Two-thirds of Egyptians disagreed that the United States is serious about encouraging democracy in the Middle East and North Africa, according to Gallup, perhaps an indication of public frustration over the U.S. government's perceived muted or belated support for Arab Spring uprisings.

"Our scorecard wasn't too good on the polling. It certainly gives us something to work on," said a diplomat based in the region, referring to the suspicion Egyptian respondents expressed toward the United States.

Some of the savviest Egyptian politicians — including presidential contender and former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and advisers to his rival, ElBaradei — have received private briefings on the poll results, presumably to ensure their platforms are in line with voter priorities.

Less seasoned politicians, however, are still unfamiliar with scientific polls and can't grasp how the methodology works in surveying a country as big and diverse as Egypt. Mogahed reassured them that the same approach is used in elections in the United States for more than 300 million people.

Getting politicians to understand and buy into the process is "the hardest thing," she said, adding, "To explain how 1,000 people represent 87 million would require, literally, a class in statistics."

(Special correspondent Mohannad Sabry contributed.)

My bold, this isn't surprising, only journos hang off Twitter feeds and Facebook, often restricted to English speaking traffic. The resulting picture is bound to be skewed. The MB is only standing for 50% of seats so it is a given that the government will be a coalition. The existing constitution only supports a heavily presidential/autocratic, its only been lightly amended.

On NightWatch

...
Egypt: The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) said it will call for and participate in a million man march scheduled to take place in Tahrir Square and other major centers of protest on 29 July. The MB said the march will protest the circumvention of the people's will and aggression against the people's sovereignty.


Comment: Recent indications from the Egyptian Army that it intends to oversee Egyptian political reforms indefinitely appear to have prompted the Brothers to take a public stand, essentially in opposition to the military-backed government for the first time.


A key member of a panel drafting guidelines for Egypt's next constitution says most of the group's 50 members object to giving the military a future role in politics. Legal expert Tahany el-Gibali said Wednesday that the principles will have enough guarantees to protect all Egyptians while also safeguarding the civilian character of the state."


Comment: The significance of the two stories above is that they reinforce the assessment that the Egyptian Army staged a coup against Mubarak, its strongest backer. The Army sacrificed Mubarak in order to preserve its dominance of the political system.


In short, Egypt experienced no democratic revolution. The Brotherhood knows it and intends to take advantage of the fracture between the Army and the activists. There will be more violent civil disorders.
...

There's been some fragmentation in the MB, the youth wing has been particularly disgruntled. The above development is interesting, the army are trying to prep the electoral battlefield in favor of the corrupt status quo. No one is having it, this could be the start of a genuinely revolutionary moment. The army appears to need the conservative MB to legitimize it's back room dominance. The Brothers have popular clout and higher ambitions than being stooges for Generals and their bid to maintain Nasser's Rentier State.

See New electoral law unwelcome across Egypt's political spectrum for details.

On The Moor Next Door Vague Thoughts on Arab Uprisings

...The Egyptian military has acted as more as a replacement for the old regime than a transitional caretaker since the overthrow of Mubarak. Having been a key pillar in the old regime and having quite strong populist credentials the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has continued many of the tactics and methods used by the former government to contain popular “excesses” by taking measures to curb protests, punishing demonstrators and using the urban poor against demonstrators. The SCAF has taken on a strongly bonapartist tendency, inciting the popular classes against the secular protest movements in Tahrir by blaming the “revolutionaries” for the country’s economic slow down and for obstructing a return to normalcy. There is a heavy degree of defensive and even vulgar populism in the SCAF’s treatment of protesters and its other opponents and critics physically and rhetorically. Despite the Mubarak trial and numerous other arrests of high profile regime figures, it is unlikely that what has gone on in Egypt since January 2011 can be called a “revolution” so much as an evolution of the previous regime or even a coup. For those with revolutionary agendas, the military’s significant popular prestige is a major obstacle to meaningful political or economic change at the structural level. The Egyptian situation reveals that although demonstrators in Tahrir were able to put the regime in crisis and force it to cut off some fat, they did not divide the elite so significantly that they were left truly vulnerable to the pressure of activists and civil society groups. The Egyptian uprising came with relatively vague objectives and ran up against a regime with a number of middle man social and political buffers between the deep regime and the masses — the labyrinth of security services and police, the public “civilian” regime figures and so on. This meant that a solid program of action never emerged from “the bottom” and that the core institutions of the old regime have basically remained in place.

Key thing here is the lack of real revolutionary political organization within the progressive Twitterati. We have a shambles in these risings. It occurs to me the noise of the much trumpeted new media technology may even be acting as a impediment to deeper revolutionary organization that's largely bult face to face and from a core leadership down. The folk who have this well developed sort of muscle and coherent understandable programs are the Islamists.

In the WSJ Egypt's Rulers Stoke Xenophobia By Yaroslav Trofimov

CAIRO—In the final days of President Hosni Mubarak's regime, Egypt's state media whipped up a xenophobic frenzy not seen here since the 1950s, blaming the revolution on alien plots and inciting vigilante mobs to assault and detain scores of foreigners.

After a lull, Egypt's new military rulers are increasingly using the same tactic: portraying pro-democracy activists as spies and saboteurs, blaming the country's economic crisis and sectarian strife on foreign infiltrators, and blasting the U.S. for funding agents of change.

As a result, connections with the U.S. and other Western countries have turned toxic just as the largest Arab country is struggling with a rocky transition to democracy.

Dozens of Westerners, including tourists, reporters and Cairo residents, have been rounded up on the streets and delivered to police stations and military checkpoints by mobs of volunteer spy catchers in recent weeks. Almost all were quickly freed, with the exception of Ilan Grapel, an Israeli-American law student who has been incarcerated since June on suspicion of being a Mossad agent dispatched to Cairo to sow unrest.

The military-inspired xenophobia campaign has been amplified by resurgent Islamists, who are traditionally hostile to any infidel influence in the country, and jingoistic reports in parts of the Egyptian media.

"Any relation with the foreigners is dangerous now," says Hafez Abu Saada, chairman of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights. "First they've started spreading incitement against foreigners, making people fear them. Now, the conspiracy theories have moved onto anyone in Egypt working with international organizations. This is a strategy to control civil society."

Though the country receives $1.3 billion in military aid from the U.S. every year, Egypt's ruling generals were particularly incensed by the Senate confirmation testimony of the new American ambassador to Cairo, Anne Patterson. She told lawmakers in June that the U.S. had already distributed some $40 million to fund Egypt's democratic transition and civil society.

Egyptian generals have repeatedly condemned as traitors nongovernment organizations that accept American money, and Cairo prosecutors have started an inquiry into these NGOs.

Greeting Ms. Patterson the week of her arrival in Cairo, the July 31 issue of the state-run news magazine October featured on its cover a depiction of the ambassador using blazing U.S. cash to ignite a bundle of dynamite wrapped in an American flag and planted in Tahrir Square, the revolution's ground zero.

The title: "Ambassador From Hell Is Setting Tahrir on Fire."

The acrimony over U.S. pro-democracy funding prompted Washington to recall the U.S. Agency for International Development chief of mission in Cairo, James Bever, who is leaving this month after only 10 months on the job, a U.S. official said.

The continued detention of Mr. Grapel has further aggravated U.S.-Egyptian relations and has been repeatedly raised in meetings with senior Egyptian generals, the U.S. official added. Mr. Grapel and the Israeli government have denied the spying allegations.

In another irritant, the Egyptian military recently said it won't allow Western observers during the parliamentary elections scheduled for November, saying such a presence would violate Egyptian sovereignty.

"In the Egyptian psyche, the West represents occupation, imperialism and colonialism," explains retired Maj. Gen. Ahmed Wahdan, the former chief of operations of the Egyptian army.

Even the more liberal parties vying for power are joining the anti-Western chorus. "America does not want for Egypt to become the largest democratic country in the region," says Al-Sayed al-Badawy, chairman of the secular and liberal Wafd party. "The aim of American funding for Egyptian NGOs is to create chaos and to overthrow Egyptian values and traditions."

The new mood is also affecting the country's economic policies just as Egypt is struggling with the postrevolutionary drop in tourism and foreign investment. In June, Egypt's then finance minister, Samir Radwan, negotiated a $5.2 billion standby loan from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. He describes the loan as favorable, with "no conditionality whatsoever" and a maximum interest rate of 2.5%—compared with 4.5% demanded by Qatar.

Yet, news of the plan sparked a nationalist outcry in the media and among political parties. "People were still thinking about the old IMF, the new type of colonialism, and all that hot air," laments Mr. Radwan. By the end of June, the military council vetoed the IMF agreement as contrary to Egypt's national interests.

Mr. Radwan has since lost his job in a cabinet reshuffle that also abolished the investment ministry and put an end to the country's privatization program.

Foreign involvement in the system of crony capitalism under Mr. Mubarak was seen by many Egyptians as unfair, and the country's new rulers must take this into account, explains the new finance minister, Hazem El-Beblawi. "Deep in our hearts we are very clear that no country can live alone," Mr. El-Beblawi says. But, he adds, "the immediate popular feeling is resentment, and sometimes you have to listen to the feelings of the people."
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State-run October magazine on its July 31 cover depicted U.S. envoy Anne Patterson stoking unrest and called her 'Ambassador From Hell.'

Looking at the polling data there is little need to stoke anti-US/Israeli feeling, the windy wonder Barry is even less popular than his predecessor.

On The Arabist WHAT ISLAMISTS SAY A SECULAR EGYPT WILL LOOK LIKE By Ursula Lindsey

In the (extremely unlikely, not to say nearly unimaginable) event that Egypt took a strong turn towards militant secularism, Islamists here have put together a video (linked to by the Muslim Brotherhood's twitter feed) showing what the future of the country will look like.

Some highlights:

It all starts when in a new constitution in 2012, Egypt no longer designates Islam as the religion of state and removes the references to Sharia as the main source of its legislation.

o In 2013, the Egyptian parliament outlaws poligamy.
o In 2014, women's rights organizations celebrate a new law that gives women equal inheritance rights.
o In 2015, women are prohibited from wearing the hegab in public buildings.
o In 2017, the first movie theater "specializing in porno films" opens.
o Obviously sexual freedom spreads, and tourism declines due to the spread of sexual harassment (Ed. Note: This is particularly ironic for those of us aware of the current rates of sexual harassment).

I don't know what's funnier about this video: the hysterically ominous music; the fact that women's rights groups are represented by a grinning blonde drinking a beer; or the way it ends up describing Bizarro Egypt, where up is down, left is right and Islam doesn't dominate every aspect of public life (politicians get in trouble for opening their speeches with "in the name of God.")

It just goes to show that playing on feelings of fear and indignation (even if you are ascendant and everyone is actually scared of you) is at the basis of most politics. More about the video's predictions after the jump.

o The Ministry of Higher Education decides all students will learn "Islam, Christianity, Judaism and Baha'ism on an equal footing."
o In 2019, there is the first gay marriage in Egypt.
o In 2020, all religious references are removed from official documents and government buildings.
o In 2022, the call to prayer is prohibited.
o In 2024, Egypt and Israel sign a joint defense agreement, and an Egyptian soldiers raises an Israeli flag over Gaza.
o Street fighting breaks out between the religious and secularists.

In the final portion, titles let viewers know that this is what secularists really plan to do, and that all their claims to the contrary ("we're not against religion, just fundamentalism and extremism;" "we just want freedom and equality") are a lie. The video then features images of secularists like feminist Nawal Es-Saadawy, Coptic business tycoon Naguib Sawiris and intellectual and Islamist critic Sayyid El-Qimni.

The video sums up by detailing the disastrous effects of secularism on the West, represented by some charts about church attendance, children born out of wedlock and -- the strongest proof -- a broken egg shell with "marriage" written across it. I can't really argue with the indictment of materialism and celebrity magazines -- and then it all ends with an image of laughing Israeli officials.

My bold, nice touch the Baha'ism bit, I can just imagine some frothing beard reaching for his revolver at the very thought.

Oddly like some of the fear mongering stuff you hear from the insurgent right in the US, I mean a secular Egypt is about as likely as Sharia takeover in Michigan.