ARmy Rumour SErvice

A breakdown of the presidential candidates to date (and their problems)
Presidential Race... Power play on rough terrain
Political tension is escalating and opposing candidates are at each other' throats.

For every action, there is a counter-action, and the result is a web of deceit and dirty tricks.
As a result, actions of and against candidates are at a new level of power play.

Mohamed Morsy is substitute candidate.
Why? As a precautionary measure against possibility of Shater being contested against, based on possible ruling against Ayman Nour.
Implication: FJP are playing a big game of politics.
Theory: Muslim Brothrhood want absolute power, and they will not admit it openly.

Hazem Abu Ismail is at court.
Why? Contesting a possible elimination based on his mother's nationality.
Implication: rift between Islamists and Feloul.
Theory: Feloul implying to the public that he lied to reduce votes for him, as they want to be back in power.

Omar Soliman is under threat.
Why? Parliament is drafting a new law that may prevent members of old regime from running for presidency.
Implication: More support for Amr Moussa.
Theory: This action is long over due, the whole parliament want to demonstrate they now have the power.

Ayman Nour is facing elimination.
Why? Administrative Court ruled against his nomination; he may be out of the race.
Implication: supporters of Shater fear he may be next.
Theory: By contending the decision of SCAF, the Judiciary body are proving the too have power of the law.

Amr Moussa is facing loyalty issues.
Why? It was rumoured he has an Israeli half-brother.
Implication: cast doubts that he is pro-Israel, accordingly not fit to be president of Egypt.
Implication: Most votes will be directed away from him.
Theory: He was leading the polls till beginning of April, so the media decided also to play the power card.

Mortada Mansour is requested to appear at court.
Why? He is being accused in the "Gammal" incident as being one of the people enticing the killing of protestors.
Implication: He may very well be on trial.
Theory: It is a reminder to the people of his past, and a play to show that the power is with the populace.

We are only on the 3rd day after the list of presidential hopefuls has been announced, and 6 of the 23 are already under attack...
These attacks are demonstrations of power.

We have a very busy 22 days ahead of us, each day bringing something new... A new power card will be played each time.

We need to be wary and keep our minds open...
For there will be truths, half-truths, lies, and politics.

Taken from hassan helmy's blog.

On The Arabist PRESIDENT MORSI (FOR SURE THIS TIME.)

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One interesting sideshow (or perhaps it was central to defusing the crisis, who knows) to the last week's crisis has been the United States. The Obama administration has voiced concern and been critical of the delays in announcing the winner and the new constitutional declaration, which effectively made impossible SCAF's commitment to withdraw from power in favor of civilians and, moreover, made constitutional the permanent existence of a SCAF as a fourth power. For many, especially in the Shafiq camp, this has amounted to an intolerable form of meddling and the perception is out there that the US has backed the MB (in the more outlandish scenarios, it's a conspiracy that ends with Israel retaking Sinai and Jordan being turned into a Palestinian state).

The US' real favored outcome has been clear for a while: a strong, rooted civilian party restoring stability (and decent economic governance) in the Brothers and clear red lines on issues such as foreign policy (especially towards Israel) and unfettered bilateral military-to-military relations (overflight rights, fast-track Suez Canal access, etc.). In other words, some sort of understanding between the Brothers and the generals. In a sense, Egypt could use a breather away from the revolutionary fervor and responsible people getting the house in order. But alongside with this comes worrying possibilities: an uneasy military-Islamist alliance, perpetually unstable, with the generals undermining the civilians and the Islamists resorting to populist antics in their impotence. It's a different time and a different set of circumstances, but late 1980s Sudan is not exactly an inspiring example of Islamist-military coexistence.

Well we'll see how much rope The Junta allows The Brothers.

Via Juan Cole Flow Chart of Authority in Today’s Egypt (!!!)

Nicely summed up.

Originally Posted by alib

Via Juan Cole Flow Chart of Authority in Today’s Egypt (!!!)

Nicely summed up.

This schematic now needs adjustment. In the NYT In Upheaval for Egypt, Morsi Forces Out Military Chiefs.

Col Lang ain't best pleased Mursi moves to purge the army.

Tantawi is elderly and probably had no intention to stay on indefinitely. Sinai on his watch has been a bit of a disaster, losing 16 soldiers in one Takfiri attack recently. As proteges of senior officers seem to be replacing them it may be more important in terms of symbolism than substance. I'm guessing this is a back room deal moved forward by events.

On NightWatch

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Egypt: By now most Readers know that Field Marshal Tantawi and Army Chief of Staff General Sami Enan have retired and been replaced as of 12 August. The June 2012 constitutional declaration by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, limiting presidential powers, has been rescinded, repealed or made null and void, by a resurgent President Mursi. Both military men remain as advisors to President Mursi.


Tanta WI's replacement is General Abdellatif Sisi. Enan's replacement is General Sidki Sobhi.


Comment: Western press coverage of the event ranges from the absurd to the curious. The absurd versions are that Mursi stood up and ordered them to retire, essentially firing them on his own authority.. That is clearly not consistent with reports that he consulted with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces before taking any action.


The details of that consultation are critical to any judgments of the significance of what happened and are what makes it most curious. There are no reports about the substance of the consultation.


One thing that is certain is that the US has been viscerally opposed to an elected president of Egypt whose powers were limited by an armed forces veto. That view appears to have deterred investors and potential aid donors as well because the political power arrangement was not stable enough to encourage investment or aid.


Thus, without warning and no power, Mursi has transformed Egypt into a respectable presidential democracy, waiting for a parliament. This is almost risible and not to be taken seriously based on weekend reports. For example it is not clear whether the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces still exists. It is not clear whether Tantawi was ousted by his subordinates in the same way that he ousted his President, Mubarak. How does this affect multiple law suits against nearly everyone in public office?


On the evidence adduced to date, this looks like a face-lift for Egyptian democracy to satisfy American sensibilities and to attract investors, but without really changing the underlying power-sharing arrangement. Nothing indicates the Egyptian armed forces surrendered to Mursi their exclusive control of defense interests, internal security problems and military economic enterprises.


It is all cosmetics with no substance.

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