ARmy Rumour SErvice

Originally Posted by Alsacien

Cameron is saying nothing, if he meant it he would say something definitive and aimed at a particular party rather than general statements aimed at the domestic audience.
Despite all the posturing in Greece by politicians on the make, realistically someone is going to give and try to save face before driving the bus off a cliff. Longer term, I see an increased risk of Greece leaving now, but still less than even odds.
If the Greeks do drive themselves off a cliff, then the only currency they could use is the Euro anyway - but with no banking system, no government income, no money for essential goods and services and no sympathy, good luck to them. At that point the ECB and other NCB's would have to step in and underwrite the rest of the Eurozone's banking and government liability.

A solution may be in hand, which is more likely than the one I just elaborated:

Greeks apologise with huge horse

Your argument boils down to "it can't happen because it's illogical". I think you need to factor in the following: 1) There are plenty of historical examples of nations adopting disastrous policy options. 2) The newly emerging parties owe their rise to public disgust at the established parties and a profound dislike of EU-driven fiscal policy, they are thus powerfully incentivised not to co-operate with either the established politicians or the EU. 3) Your doomsday scenario may be an accurate forecast (though somehow the former Soviet Union states were able to cobble together new currencies) or it may not. Again, you're assuming that your view is the correct one, largely because you believe its logic to be impeccable, and that therefore no-one can rationally believe otherwise. Have you considered that a significant portion of the Greek population might not be able to intellectually conceive of things getting even worse and are therefore willing to take the chance?

If you're going to understand this crisis, you need to apply some EQ and grow beyond your ferocious potty training.

Originally Posted by FORMER_FYRDMAN

Your argument boils down to "it can't happen because it's illogical". I think you need to factor in the following: 1) There are plenty of historical examples of nations adopting disastrous policy options. 2) The newly emerging parties owe their rise to public disgust at the established parties and a profound dislike of EU-driven fiscal policy, they are thus powerfully incentivised not to co-operate with either the established politicians or the EU. 3) Your doomsday scenario may be an accurate forecast (though somehow the former Soviet Union states were able to cobble together new currencies) or it may not. Again, you're assuming that your view is the correct one, largely because you believe its logic to be impeccable, and that therefore no-one can rationally believe otherwise. Have you considered that a significant portion of the Greek population might not be able to intellectually conceive of things getting even worse and are therefore willing to take the chance?

If you're going to understand this crisis, you need to apply some EQ and grow beyond your ferocious potty training.

I assume I am correct because I make a very good living from understanding the economic situation relating to this crisis, I am not seeing any need to change just yet......especially as I have consistently proved to be correct, despite the wailing on this thread by the gullible press readers about imminent doom.
I also do not bother with 95% of the issue as some are still stuck on the basics, and lack the objectivity to go further.

Originally Posted by Alsacien

I have not back peddled on anything I can recall, just like the statement that you cannot fix fiscal problems with monetary solutions, something you are seemingly struggling with.

I know you haven't, my point is that you need to. Nor do I follow your point. Throughout this thread both Wordsmith and myself have consistently argued that the Euro is structurally flawed and that the problems cannot be resolved unless the system is reformed - either through capital transfers or through a break up of the Euro and a return to separate currencies. You're the one who's being saying don't worry because Europe's got plenty of funding to call on - a monetary solution for a fiscal problem if ever there was one.

Originally Posted by Alsacien

I assume I am correct because I make a very good living from understanding the economic situation relating to this crisis, I am not seeing any need to change just yet......especially as I have consistently proved to be correct, despite the wailing on this thread by the gullible press readers about imminent doom.
I also do not bother with 95% of the issue as some are still stuck on the basics, and lack the objectivity to go further.

If you are going to quote your personal situation then it does rather change the game on here. You may be making a great deal of money from this situation as are plenty of others. The fact that you have not been proved wrong, yet, shows an apparent lack of historical context that is breathtaking.

Please go on making hay in your particular sunshine.

Originally Posted by bokkatankie

If you are going to quote your personal situation then it does rather change the game on here. You may be making a great deal of money from this situation as are plenty of others. The fact that you have not been proved wrong, yet, shows an apparent lack of historical context that is breathtaking.

Please go on making hay in your particular sunshine.

My business makes its money from knowledge, not investments - so not an evil banker in the classic sense, in fact I'm only normally evil on Friday mornings after client meetings.....

Originally Posted by Alsacien

I assume I am correct because I make a very good living from understanding the economic situation relating to this crisis, I am not seeing any need to change just yet......especially as I have consistently proved to be correct, despite the wailing on this thread by the gullible press readers about imminent doom.
I also do not bother with 95% of the issue as some are still stuck on the basics, and lack the objectivity to go further.

An amazingly frank and forthright view which will either be proved very right or disastrously wrong in about 4 - 6 weeks time.....

A breath of fresh air from you Al....

Originally Posted by geezer466

An amazingly frank and forthright view which will either be proved very right or disastrously wrong in about 4 - 6 weeks time.....

A breath of fresh air from you Al....

I just start from the practicalities (which I understand completely, either directly or via various experts), and work back through the various scenarios to give the most logical conclusion[s] on balance. The science only comes in the detail and modelling, and especially the forecasting.
The concept is always going to pan out better than any other option, and the margins and parameters of the variables are also known.

Originally Posted by Alsacien

I just start from the practicalities (which I understand completely, either directly or via various experts), and work back through the various scenarios to give the most logical conclusion[s] on balance. The science only comes in the detail and modelling, and especially the forecasting.
The concept is always going to pan out better than any other option, and the margins and parameters of the variables are also known.

I bet you are a bundle of joy at cocktail parties.