ARmy Rumour SErvice

**Wordsmith** · 29-04-2012, 14:37

Originally Posted by bobos

Can I ask a question - if the UK decided that the EU was too much, and decided to give notice of leaving, what would happen, a- in the immediate aftermath of the threat, and b-if we actually put two fingers up to the EU and went our own way.

The UK would have to negotiate membership of the varying EU tree trade areas because otherwise (as a non-EU country) it would have to pay import tariffs on its exports to Europe. But if this could be done (big if politically) the UK would probably be better off than as a member of the EU proper. We would have access to trade within Europe without all the political baggage that comes with EU membership.

My personal belief (and Alsacien will be along to give you the counter argument) is that the attempt to make the EU a superstate is turning out to be an economic millstone for many of the countries in the EU. If we had a single large trade area we would have the economies of scale to develop large, efficient industries. Individual states within that trade area (UK, France, Germany, Italy) are big enough economically to punch their weight on the world stage anyway.

The problems with the EU in its present form are two fold:

1) A misguided/deluded attempt to become a political superpower.

2) An attempt to force common economic policies on countries with very different economies. The current problems within the euro zone are a direct consequence of that.

What I find particularly ironic about the whole situation is that (IMHO) had the EU become a single large trade area without the delusions of political grandeur, its larger economies would be far stronger than they are today - giving Europe the political clout it wanted anyway.

Wordsmith

**Stanley1975** · 29-04-2012, 15:21

Originally Posted by geezer466

The fact Wilders (and I imagine a few of his mates) was elected in the fist place must have been because his 'right wing' message was getting some attention....

How can you be so sure this will not continue in forthcoming elections?

What is the left and right's view of austerity? Pretty much the same or diametrically opposed?

I've answered you by PM to avoid massive thread derailing.

**vinniethemanxcat** · 29-04-2012, 16:49

Spain
Tells the playground its dad's out of work, but doesn't like to admit its mum and older brother are out of work as well. Big problems with debt and the remnants of a housing boom and bust. The Spanish are going to have real trouble dealing with the debt in their system.

After reading all the posts on here I decided to withdraw our ISAs from Santander.... purely a precaution, but thanks, wouldn't like to be unable to access funds for a while, even if we were compensated later.

**alib** · 29-04-2012, 18:39

Germany

The rich but dull kid who owns the sweet factory, won't share sweets.

France

The cool kid who won't share his sweets but secretly has no sweets.

Italy

The cool kid who everybody knows has no sweets but has a hot sister.

The UK

The slightly frayed kid who has been sulkily chewing the same gum for a term, says he likes it

Ireland

Special Needs sprog that ate too many sweets was sick, now blubs at the sight of Germany.

Greece

Suspended for shop lifting sweets, claims Germany said it was all free.

Spain

Lives in the house where Germany hid the profits, house now on fire.

**geezer466** · 29-04-2012, 19:25

Originally Posted by vinniethemanxcat

Spain
Tells the playground its dad's out of work, but doesn't like to admit its mum and older brother are out of work as well. Big problems with debt and the remnants of a housing boom and bust. The Spanish are going to have real trouble dealing with the debt in their system.

After reading all the posts on here I decided to withdraw our ISAs from Santander.... purely a precaution, but thanks, wouldn't like to be unable to access funds for a while, even if we were compensated later.

A prudent move and one I would agree with. Wish I could convince her indoors (who has a fair stash) in Santander to do the same. I on the other hand keep a fair stash in Nat West and have just moved some to the Nationwide to take advantage of their better interest rates. Nat West of course is part of RBS..

The FSA does of course have the depositor guarantee

New deposit guarantee limit to be £85,000

As to whether this would apply if Santander went tits up who knows, the Government can either cancel it or print to meet the obligations, neither would be pretty.

The key part is that as and when a major European bank falls over (and it doesn't have to be Santander) is in what direction the shrapnel travels. Give the way the global banking system operates in this day and age it is very possible it will take other banks down with it, some of these are likely to be British. This brings me back to what the Government could do to back up the FSA guarantee!!

I think the FSA exists purely to assuage public fear of a banking collapse. If such a scenario came about then it would be as much use as a chocolate teapot. Bit like having a nuclear deterrent. You have it to dissuade other powers launching against you. If they do however and you are forced to use it, it becomes next to useless anyway.

Santander can always if it becomes necessary fall back on the Spanish Government to bail them out in pretty much the same way RBS did with the UK Government, if it were not for the very obvious difference!!

**Wordsmith** · 29-04-2012, 20:33

The Guardian has picked up on an interesting Sarko story. There are claims that Gadaffi financed Sarko's 2007 campaign.

Nicolas Sarkozy faces renewed claim Gaddafi agreed to fund 2007 campaign | World news | The Guardian

Nicolas Sarkozy has rejected a renewed claim that Muammar Gaddafi agreed to donate up to €50m to his last presidential campaign. The investigative website Mediapart published what it called "compelling new evidence" that the Libyan regime decided to help finance Sarkozy's successful election campaign in 2007. A document that it said was signed by Gaddafi's foreign intelligence chief, Moussa Koussa, stated that the regime had approved a payment of €50m (£40m). Sarkozy said the document was a fabrication and a disgrace, and accused the French left of using the reports "to create a distraction".

I don't know if it is true or not - although French politicians from all persuasions do seem prone to murky dealings. But it puts him on the back foot in the last week of a campaign he's losing. Add into that Hollande saying he won't dance to Merkel's tune, Merkel campaigning in all but name for Sarkozy and Sarko being married to a woman who's apparently as popular as Marie Antoinette in France and its not looking good for him.

Looks like there might be a dwarf looking through the 'situations vacant' pages soon...

Wordsmith

**bluntslane** · 29-04-2012, 20:52

Re the moving funds out of Santander accounts/ISAs.

Isn't UK Santander a slightly different entity to Banco Santander Espana?

**Pyianno** · 30-04-2012, 15:11

Good summary of events:

**geezer466** · 01-05-2012, 20:08

UK risks longer slump as euro woes hit factories | Reuters

We are entering the phase which will be called by in the future by historians as the 'Greater Depression'.

The only good thing in that report is the BOE are moving to a position of being anti further QE....

**Wordsmith** · 01-05-2012, 20:53

Jim Flaherty, the Canadian finance minister, is having a real pop at the IMF in the Telegraph.

The eurozone should sort out its own mess - Telegraph

The eurozone should sort out its own mess

The International Monetary Fund is not there to give special treatment to Europe, which is now endangering the world.

At the meeting of the International Monetary Fund recently, Canada decided against contributing more resources to support the eurozone. We also argued that all countries borrowing from the IMF should be treated equally. We took these positions because we believe they are in the best interests of the eurozone, of the IMF, and of the international community.

We have always supported the IMF’s important systemic role in promoting economic stability by providing loans to countries that have exhausted their domestic options, and placing these countries on a path to sustainability through time-limited interventions. But it is not the IMF’s role to substitute for national governments.

In order for any IMF action in Europe to be successful, a sense of direction and a comprehensive blueprint to return to sustainability are necessary. The question of sustainability cannot be separated from that of the future of the European monetary union. As such, its members should take the lead in defining a comprehensive and credible blueprint. This requires more than incrementalism and wishful thinking. Europe has taken important steps in this direction with the fiscal compact, with economic and fiscal reforms in Italy and Spain, with an enhanced firewall, and with the recent actions of the European Central Bank to provide liquidity support. However, more is needed to return the eurozone to sustainability and to address the systemic internal imbalances that threaten the monetary union...

Ultimately, the adequacy of the actions taken will be judged by the markets. Repeated expressions of confidence by politicians are futile if the markets continue to cast their vote of non-confidence. The markets’ confidence in political leadership will only be restored when it is clear that politicians are willing to see the full scope of the problem, to focus on the key issues instead of pursuing sideshows such as the financial transactions tax, and to set out and implement a plan for tackling these issues...

The European debt crisis also raises a question of resources. The eurozone has sufficient resources to tackle its sovereign debt crisis, but there is an unwillingness to commit them to tackle the problem. In these circumstances, IMF loans are not an adequate substitute for a serious commitment by eurozone countries to resolve this crisis.

Some good points there.

1) There are systemic trade balances between the north and the south of the eurozone and nothing is being done to address those.

2) Thus far the eurozone has tinkered round the edges, rather than tacking the core of the problem.

3) Eurozone politicians have indulged in wishful thinking about the scale of the crisis.

Significant parts of Europe (including the UK) are tipping back into recession, while the majority of the rest of the world seems to have recovered from the Lehman crash and its aftermath.

Could that be because the rest of the world still has sovereign currencies, while much of Europe is shackled into the straitjacket of the Euro?

Wordsmith