ARmy Rumour SErvice

If you get persistent unemployment in the 20-30% range and higher amongst yoof I'd anticipate civil unrest, and not the sort of petty shopping riots that flustered the English last Summer but active extremism, unpredictable civic collapses just like we've seen recently in the Arab world. It's not coincidental that those levels are what Northern Irish Catholics experienced in the early 70s or Germans in the 30s, in the latter case the government made the mistake of cutting off the bru, if there's no end in sight people will simply lose hope and then it all gets a bit "Tomorrow belongs to me" rather easily. It's these sort of worries not humanitarian sentiment that pushed the US away from austere Hooverism into the New Deal and the Brits off the failing Gold Standard.

They are predicting Spanish real estate will half in value over the next couple of years, that's an awful lot of bad mortgages held by not just by Spanish but other already over extended european banks, this could be a bit like Ireland's self inflicted woes on a far larger scale. Back in the 30s its banks that were the point of failure and they remain the weakest element here.

I notice the German Unions are pushing for a 6% rise, German employers have been working hard to depress high Kraut wage levels for decades, they won't like that. On the other hand if that money gets spent hogging the sun loungers in the Club Med countries on those endless summer breaks they are so fond of it actually might be helpful.

Interesting story in the Irish Independent today alib.....

Dublin nurse secures €152k mortgage debt write-down - National News - Independent.ie

Reckon this sort of thing will catch on?.... Some of the commentators have made the link of transfer of the mortgage debt from person to taxpayer.

Anyhow - some pre-fight publicity for the forthcoming heavyweight clash...

Hollande and Merkel clash looms over eurozone austerity | World news | The Guardian

Hollande and Merkel clash looms over eurozone austerity

German chancellor tells France it cannot rewrite fiscal pact but French presidential frontrunner says Berlin does not rule Europe

Germany and France moved towards a bruising and potentially destabilising showdown over how to tackle the European debt crisis when Chancellor Angela Merkel abruptly dismissed one of François Hollande's central presidential campaign pledges.

As the French Socialist leader extended his poll lead over Nicolas Sarkozy to 10 points on Friday with just over a week until the French vote, Merkel declared that his drive to reopen the EU's fiscal pact penalising spendthrift eurozone governments was futile.

"The fiscal pact has been negotiated, it has been signed by 25 government leaders, and has already been ratified by Portugal and Greece. Parliaments all over Europe are about to pass it. Ireland has a referendum on it at the end of May. It cannot be negotiated anew," Merkel told the WAZ media group.

But with governments across Europe falling victim to a backlash against austerity, the policy debate in Europe is shifting from German insistence on austerity towards a greater emphasis on boosting growth and creating jobs.

I wonder if it'llbe all sound and fury or a genuine no holds barred punch-up.

To me at least it seems that Merkel is losing the 'austerity only' argument with more and more governments saying its a counter-productive strategy.As I've remarked before, I can see Hollande (increasingly looking like the winner in the Presidential election) making common cause with Italy and Spain to form an anti-Merkel block.

And if that happens, what'll that do for Merkel's re-election chances next year?

Wordsmith

Originally Posted by alib

If you get persistent unemployment in the 20-30% range and higher amongst yoof I'd anticipate civil unrest, and not the sort of petty shopping riots that flustered the English last Summer but active extremism, unpredictable civic collapses just like we've seen recently in the Arab world.

It'll be interesting to see if we get an 'anti-EU spring'. If at some point in the future people in Club Med start to link high unemployment rates with EU policies, things could get very ugly.

To be fair there's not much sign of that happening at present, but history shows us that high unemployment/widespread poverty provide a fertile breeding ground for extremist parties of both the left and the right.

I guess the coming election in Greece will give us an early indication as to whether this is is a possible event. We'll be able to see how many votes transfer from the mainstream, centralist parties to the more extreme anti-EU parties.

Wordsmith

Originally Posted by Stanley1975

Not an attack on you WS, but the Guardian didn't take into account local sensitivities. The Dutch government didn't fall because of the EU's debt crisis, but to get rid of Geert Wilders as a "gedoogpartner" of the minority government. No attempts at reconciliation where made, which is extraordinary strange when it comes to a fallen government.

Interesting.

So what do you think was the motive for getting rid of Wilders?

Wordsmith

Originally Posted by Wordsmith

Interesting.

So what do you think was the motive for getting rid of Wilders?

Wordsmith

Short version: he turned out to be nothing more than a petulant child crying for attention. Useless in national politics and an obstacle in international relations.

VVD (libertarian/liberals) + CDA (christian democrats) made up the minority government (52 seats out of a 150). When Wilders walked out of the budget cuts they could have asked opposition parties to back up the plans. Technically the government couldn't fall over the walkout since Wilders' party wasn't part of it.

The resignation was probably handed in (and rewarded at record speed) to show the other parties in parliament the VVD + CDA were finally done with Wilders and don't want to cooperate with him any more. This made it easier for the Christian Union, D66 and Groen Links (all middle-left wing parties) to strike a deal with VVD and CDA. Effectively the middle solved the internal political crisis here by side lining the more extreme parties like the Socialist Party, Wilders' PVV, SGP (christian fundamentalists), the Animal Rights Party and even Labour. The latter probably to cause them as much damage as possible.

Opinion polls show it was a good decision as a vast majority of the Dutch population agree something must be done and we can't delay it any further. Wilders will probably lose some voters to the left wing populist party (Socialist Party).

You see, it just happened to be the debt crisis they were talking about. But to be honest, they could have negotiated over changing our national flag to pink and it would have happened. They wanted to get rid and Wilders guessed wrong by walking out. You break, you pay over here so hopefully his party will diminish pronto.

Originally Posted by geezer466

Interesting story in the Irish Independent today alib.....

Dublin nurse secures €152k mortgage debt write-down - National News - Independent.ie

Reckon this sort of thing will catch on?.... Some of the commentators have made the link of transfer of the mortgage debt from person to taxpayer.

Well she had already given the house back. The collateral's value falls far short of the loan which is to some extent the creditors fault, if the client lacks other resources they are stuffed and this one is a nurse who agreed to pay a substantial sum back over six years. There are lots of these cases pending, BoI being a ward of the tax payer did not stop them fighting this case, the outcome for BoI books was probably inevitable.

Originally Posted by alib

Well she had already given the house back. The collateral's value falls far short of the loan which is to some extent the creditors fault, if the client lacks other resources they are stuffed and this one is a nurse who agreed to pay a substantial sum back over six years. There are lots of these cases pending, BoI being a ward of the tax payer did not stop them fighting this case, the outcome for BoI books was probably inevitable.

Perhaps in the spirit of the Irish property market something underhand had taken place? Knock down price on resale to a mate of a mate? Perhaps the creditor didn't want a legal enquiry into the circumstances of the sale?
Case being discussed in more detail on the property pin...... Dublin nurse secures