- 24-04-2012, 09:22 #3911
- 24-04-2012, 09:30 #3912
The market will do what it has to do.
- 24-04-2012, 09:34 #3913
- 24-04-2012, 09:35 #3914
- 24-04-2012, 10:00 #3915
- 24-04-2012, 10:02 #3916
Since graduating with a Masters in Business Administration from Trinity College, Dublin, in 2008, I have been out of paid employment and living on social welfare. Not by choice, but necessity. I gave up looking for a suitable position in Ireland a year ago and have since started two businesses that, unfortunately, simply didn't pay the bills. Now a run an Internet site and blog.
He might be the Messiah, but personally I don't intend wasting my time finding out......
- 24-04-2012, 10:04 #3917
- 24-04-2012, 10:06 #3918
- 24-04-2012, 10:07 #3919
My take on where we are today with the European Debt Crisis. (Sprogs guide if you like)
1. Countries borrow to fund their deficits....(The difference between what they raise in Taxation and what they spend)
2. This goes on for years and the debt reaches numbers of biblical proportions.
3. Populations of said Countries have become so accustomed to living within a system of high public services and generous welfare, they cannot be told they need to reduce this.
3. The markets (who lend the money at 1) begin to become worried that maybe just maybe as the debts are getting too large that these Countries may not be able to pay them back. Consequently they demand higher interest rates on new debt.
4. And so it goes on
5. Eventually this interest rate creeps above a figure where it simply becomes uneconomic for the host Country to borrow (from that source) any more.
6. They turn to their neighbours for help (if a member of the Eurozone then the other members, if not then the IMF)
7. The (Eurozone) Countries and/or the IMF demand austerity (in some cases severe) as a condition of giving the loan.
8. See Item 3.
9. The markets are still not convinced all is well (as they can see the measures needed at 3 are not being followed) consequently they still move to mark up interest rates to Countries where there is still a shadow of doubt.
10. Larger groups (wider Eurozone and IMF) seek to backstop bailouts with sums so large that the markets are left in no doubt there is both the will and means to underwrite the debts no matter how large they get.
(The bit the media always neglects to mention is that these sums are the tax receipts which will be gathered in the far and distant future from the unborn).
11. The larger group and the IMF hope (fingers crossed) that the size of the sum is so large it will convince the markets there is no need to demand higher interest rates on future borrowing as there will always be a backstop. (They just hope they never have to use it).
12. Austerity and what measures that have been enacted at item 3 are unpopular with the populations and so far have led to at least 2 Governments having to resign as they cannot get the measures through. In addition a serious contender in the national election of one of the Eurozone's major players has gone on the record to say he will seek to re-negotiate what debt reduction measures have been agreed at Eurozone level. In addition at least one Eurozone nation is to hold a referendum on the EFSF, no doubt as part of the campaigning for this, sight and knowledge of the draconian treaty terms needed to establish this may become widely known. This may cause another backlash.
13. Where we are today.... Some Governments are unable to get Austerity measures through and this is plain to see by the markets. Bond spreads on questionable nations will continue to rise.
Alistair Darling said this morning on Radio 4 the EFSF gave them a breathing space to find a permanent solution. They have not used this time to do that and time is indeed running out.
Anyone with half a brain can see what the solution but the populations of Europe do not want to undergo the pain which comes with it.
- 24-04-2012, 10:11 #3920