- 09-11-2011, 17:36 #2391
It is not normally quite so changeable, and there is a calendar as they do want to let investors know what is coming so they can plan portfolios, but at the moment...........
- 09-11-2011, 18:57 #2392
Well I don't feel that the effort of trawling through raw data is worth it in light of your credibility, so lets just say that either you are wrong or this bit of journo totty is wrong...
The problem with Italy's debt is its size - Telegraph
"- Debt repayments: Italy has €173.3bn in short term and long term debt maturing for the rest of this year. Between 2011 and 2014 Italy has €656.4bn maturing."--
"I believe that pipe smoking contributes to a somewhat calm and objective judgement in all human affairs."
-Albert Einstein, 1950
- 09-11-2011, 19:26 #2393
- 09-11-2011, 19:38 #2394
Just to add what is known today.
Tomorrow is a 5 billion BOT (Buoni Ordinari del Tesoro) auction - which is a zero coupon bond auction, which means they are sold at a discount and there is no interest payment.
The 14th Nov is a BTP auction (Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali) size not yet announced - which is a treasury bond that pays interest.
Other scheduled auctions this year have been notified as not likely to occur as the treasury has sufficient reserves, but there will be other things going on I expect.
Next maturity is 1st Feb 2012 which I think is for a 10 year BTP.
- 09-11-2011, 19:43 #2395
- Join Date
- Jan 2010
If it was so easy to turn the economy around, don't you think Berlusconi would have done it so he could stay in power and have more bunga bunga parties?
Italy has deep seated structural problems. These include:
- An economy that has become steadily less competitive against the northern European economies: I have seen figures suggesting Italy is 40% less competitive against Germany than when they joined the Euro
- Problems with corruption; the black economy is thought to be about 25% of GDP
- Problems with tax evasion; although not on Greek scales, tax evasion is known to be rife.
- A bloated public sector (that is also used for political patronage)
- Interest payments on a debt of 120% of GDP that have substantially increased.
In addition to the above:
- The EU seems to be tipping back into recession which will worsen the Italian deficit.
- The impending Greek default will further reduce confidence in Italian banks
- The increasingly strident attempts by France/Germany to impose change on Italy may be met with a raspberry.
The time for Italy to start sorting out these problems was several years ago. Instead, no politicians wanted to take the hard decisions necessary. Why should they suddenly grow a backbone and start taking them now? It takes time to turn an economy around. In the case of the UK, it is scheduled to take 5 years to eliminate the bulk of the structural deficit that we have. It is difficult to see Italy addressing its problems on a shorter time scale.
If interest rates on Italian sovereign debt stay above 7% for any length of time, they will need a bail out. The Euro zone politicians totally failed to prevent this crisis - why on earth will they suddenly develop the wisdom and political courage to solve it?
- 09-11-2011, 19:53 #2396
- 09-11-2011, 19:58 #2397
....and still the ECB is not sufficiently concerned to start printing cash, no QE happening there yet....
...and still the Eurozone base rate is not dragging along the ground, plenty of wiggle room there yet..
....and still the Eurozone adjusted inflation rate is looking OK.....
Perspective gentlemen, a lot more smoke than there is fire.
- 09-11-2011, 20:06 #2398
- Join Date
- Apr 2006
- South Africa
- 09-11-2011, 20:08 #2399
- Join Date
- Jul 2006
Silvio should have never gotten back into power after loosing the first time but thanks to basic incompetence of Italian left he did.
If anything it's fairly clear the Italian Spanish and Greek governments are deliberately taking a dive in order to be out of power when the austerity programs really kick in.
- 09-11-2011, 20:10 #2400