ARmy Rumour SErvice

**Birdie_Numnums** · 06-10-2005, 09:59

The Iranian Government may not be widely popular but then neither is the Bliar Govt. it is however a long bow to draw to believe that the people of Iran want to be saved. Other than the wealthy ruling class the population under the Shar was probably more unhappy with him and his masters the US. I believe an attack on Iran would only unite the nation against the attacker. The regulars are not the threat but the irregulars are. Dangerous ground and to what end?

**cpunk** · 06-10-2005, 10:05

Originally Posted by Birdie_Numnums

The Iranian Government may not be widely popular but then neither is the Bliar Govt. it is however a long bow to draw to believe that the people of Iran want to be saved.

Yes, we went down that road in Iraq didn't we, and much to our surprise, a fair number of Iraqis turned out to have been reasonably content under Saddam. It's always surprising how many Russians are nostalgic for the days of Stalin, how many Germans miss Hitler. I was on a train in Berlin one night about fifteen years ago when a fight broke out between drunken boxheads on the platform and a little old lady piped up with words to the effect of: 'Disgraceful, this would never have happened in Hitler's day'. There was a bit of nervous laughter and then everyone started agreeing with her. If, hypothetically, the Mullahs were ousted by us, you can guarantee that a fair few Iranians would be suficiently nostalgic for the smack of firm theocracy that they would try to make our lives horrendously uncomfortable.

**Goatman** · 06-10-2005, 16:51

Originally Posted by Skinn_Full

This has been coming for a while though hasn't it. Anyone have any idea of Iranian military strength, are they using old Russian kit too ,do they have an Airforce? Would check Jaynes but can't be bothered!

Well I guess you could ask our American friends....who sold them F14 Tomcats, Phantoms and Chinooks.....oh and a section of my old Alma Mater which was called the MoD Iran Tank office....who cheerfully sold the previous regime a variant of the Chieftain which they designated 'Shir Iran ' ......which became Challenger 1:

1983 - Great Britain Challenger 1 MBT
Armament: 1 - 120mm long L11A5 gun
2 - 7.62mm MG
2 x 5 barrel smoke dischargers
Power Train: Perkins Engines (Shrewsbury) Condor V-12,
12 cyl diesel, coupled to David Brown Vehicle
Transmission TN37.

Speed: 34.8 mph
Range: 279 miles
Crew: 4
Weight: 68 tons
Continued development in the Centurion/Chieftain line to produce the Shir/Iran 2 originally planned for Iranian forces. After the Iranian revolution, taken over by the British Army. Much more powerful engine than the Chieftain and equipped with excellent Chobham Armor. Excellent record in Operation Desert Storm. Not one vehicle lost in combat while destroying 300 Iraqi tanks. Total of 420 delivered between 1983 and 1990

Up until a few years ago, people were being jailed in this country for trying to sell them spares for these platforms....

According to the very informative public source material in 'The Military Balance 2004/05 ': ISBN 0-19-856622-0 they have around 1600 MBT's ranging from T-54's and Shermans through Chieftains, Chaffees and Scorpions.

Main tank type by number is the T72 of which the reference tells me they have some 480.

In artillery, the Iranian Army field 310 self-propelled guns, including 180 US supplied M-109s and around 700 Multiple Rocket Launcher systems from China called a Type-63.

They also have an estimated 300 Surface to Surface missiles.

In Air Defence terms they operate US-supplied HAWK missiles ( yo, thanks Ollie North!), British Rapier and a really old beast called Tigercat ( land version of Naval Seacat system, superseded in RN by Seawolf in 1980s), and various manpads like SA-7 and US-supplied Stingers........

In the 1980s, they fought Saddam's invasion force to a standstill, threw the Iraqis out of Iran and then crossed the Shatt-Al-Arab and , IIRC, occupied the Faw peninsular....

The Army strength is at peacetime establishment of 350,000. The IRGC ground forces are estimated at another 120,000.
' Military Balance ' estimates a further 350,000 reservists.

Sobering analysis:

Under IRGC direction, the deployment of SHAHAB-3/ZELZAL-3 ballistic missiles - with a range of 600 miles - commenced [in 2003] with between three and six launchers coming into service . In the near term ,the programme is expected to achieve a production rate of about 20 missiles a year.

No wonder Israel would like to see them taken down.....the flight time from Northern Iran to Haifa is probably about 20 minutes.....

Le Chevre

**fozzy** · 06-10-2005, 17:19

Originally Posted by MrPVRd

This is related entirely to the nuclear issue. Airstrikes against reactors are therefore a possibility.

A Storm Shadow or 5 into the reactor containment vessel would send a pretty powerful message.

**castlereagh** · 06-10-2005, 19:31

Originally Posted by DozyBint

Originally Posted by The_Swede

... the government in Iran is not unpopular, and has just been re-elected in a (relatively) free election...

It appears that you're reading from very different sources than I.

Ahmadinejad powerbase lies in the urban poor and rural sections of Irans population i.e. the majority. The dissidents are laregly middle class and their vocality and be quite misleading to observers.
The first stage of the '79 revolution was a pan-national affair with liberals and clerics uniting against the shah, as even though Pre-revolutionary Iran was culturally liberal the Shah and the Savak equally matched the present clerics' authoritarianism and ruthlessness. I think that they kept the ordinary torturers and just killed the management.

**PartTimePongo** · 07-10-2005, 20:53

I'm sure we did the "Iranian" link before. Was it PVR'd that posted it, then we went and found all the lovely guns and bits on the official Iranian Weapon site?

Pay attention journalists, we've done this.

Watching Tony say "We definitely have a connection" and the Army saying "No we don't" . nice to See Col.Tim putting his mouth all over it too . "Oh it's the wee Hizboolah boys so it is"

Really Sir? I thought it was "Sell to whoever has the folding" as they've already proved, and there was an awful lot of money floating around.

**Taz_786** · 08-10-2005, 02:17

What about the WMD angle?

It seems most people have ignored the fact that Iran almost certainly does have quantities of chemical weapons and possibly even bio.

Anyone have any more info?

If attacked would Iran threaten to use this capability?

Would it deter the Yanks from airstrikes in the first place?

This is all getting very worrying.

**NEO_CON** · 08-10-2005, 05:17

Their is not going to be an attack on Iran by US or British forces.

1 We don't know where all their Nuclear facilities are located. They could be buried deep underground and widely dispersed locations.

2 We don't know the strength of their air defense as we did in Iraq. Iraq had no fly zones and for years the air defenses were tested.

3 Iraq had a long history of violation of UN sanctions Iran does not.A legal case could be made against Iraq.It's much more difficult to make a case against Iran.

4 Not enough navel assets in the gulf to carry out a big mission of the nature you are talking about.

5 Iran is a much bigger geographically and It has more population than Iraq. It is a much more difficult target and the military forces of the US and GB are not big enough in the area at this time to invade or counter the reaction of the Iranians to a attack.

6 The Iranian leadership is more popular and the political system has much more support than Sadam's regime did.

7 Their's no stomach for a fight with Iran. Congress would not give the President authorization to use force against Iran. I would think Parliament would not let Blair use force either.

It just not going to happen but we don't want them to know that.We want Iran to stop in the aiding of the killing of Coalition forces in the Basra area. We will make threats but I don't think they take them very seriously.

If their was going to be attack on Iran people would start to see movement of troops.Anything as large as a attack on Iran someone would notice.

**KGB_resident** · 08-10-2005, 06:47