ARmy Rumour SErvice

**smallbrownprivates** · 24-06-2012, 18:30

From Stratfor:
In Egypt, MB's Morsi Declared President
June 24, 2012 | 1520 GMT

Muslim Brotherhood (MB) candidate Mohammed Morsi was declared Egypt's first democratically elected civilian president after the fall Hosni Mubarak nearly 17 months ago. According to the Special Presidential Election Commission, Morsi won approximately 52 percent of the vote, while Ahmed Shafiq, the preferred candidate of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and former Mubarak-era prime minister, earned 48 percent. The results will not change the fact that the SCAF will continue to dominate Egyptian politics for a variety of reasons.

First, the council prevented the MB from dominating both the legislative and executive branches of government by dissolving the parliament after the MB won the most seats of any group in the late 2011/early 2012 parliamentary elections. Second, the SCAF issued a fresh constitutional declaration giving itself sweeping legislative and security powers as well as major oversight over the process to draft a new constitution. Third, the SCAF and the MB have been in continuous negotiations throughout the transition process, resulting in a bargain whereby the MB will work within the parameters laid out by the military in exchange for a share of the power.

In addition to having his powers circumscribed by the military, Morsi will not be a full term president because fresh parliamentary elections will be held after the formation of a new constitution, a process that will be heavily influenced by the military. The MB's victory in the presidential elections thus shows that the SCAF will continue to determine the scope and pace of the post-Mubarak transition toward multi-party politics. Morsi's win falls in line with Stratfor's forecast that the military and the MB would reach an agreement whereby the SCAF would concede the presidency. For its part, the MB would be left with little choice but to cede primary authority to the military in drafting the constitution, which will ultimately decide the balance of power among the military, parliament and presidency.

**Civvy Scum** · 24-06-2012, 18:47

Originally Posted by Flash MacTavish

Looks like I'll be checking out some other location for my winterbreaks in the future, you've scored an own goal here Achmed.

I'd suggest Eilat, very nice for a winter break and the locals are civilised, unlike their neighbours.

**Civvy Scum** · 24-06-2012, 18:54

Originally Posted by LeoRoverman

Noooo!!! that's to expensive- you have to get there to do that. Nope easier just to ignore them. I think I'll try bracing Skegness

Quick, somebody send Leo the number for Samaritans!

**Mattb** · 24-06-2012, 19:01

Seeing as the elections in Egypt are looking more and more like a sham, I don't think it really matters what flavour of President they got.

**Glad_its_all_over** · 24-06-2012, 19:09

No dramas in the immediate future - not much has changed, the Army's still in charge and likely to remain so. They've no idea how a democratic government works and the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated party which won the election is going to be putting a lot of time and attention into watching its fucking manners vis-a-vis the generals. There might be some posturing, but, effectively, no change.

**Yokel** · 24-06-2012, 19:13

Surely the Suez canal is an important source of revenue for Egypt, so cutting it off would be cutting off their nose to spite their face?

**re-stilly** · 24-06-2012, 19:16

Originally Posted by Yokel

Surely the Suez canal is an important source of revenue for Egypt, so cutting it off would be cutting off their nose to spite their face?

And when has that ever stopped an Islamic Nation from spiting the West. If They think it will hurt Europe and the rest of the West then they will do it. All it will do is send stuff the long way round or through the Panama canal.

**swissian** · 24-06-2012, 19:18

I have a good time on Sharm in April for a fairly cheap break. Cairo too, which was just starting to return to normal (guess that's back off the tourist trail again)

Old Sharm IS ropey though...

As for the canal, some owners don't like going via Gulf of Aden but for some trades - Black sea to China for example, there really is no other realistic option. They only have tourism and the canal for foreign exchange earnings, they won't screw the second one up,

**Manley** · 24-06-2012, 19:38

The Gypo Army will be running things as per normal and the President and his Mooslim Bruderbund will do as they are told or it,s endex for them and back to pre Mubarak.