ARmy Rumour SErvice

Another one from Japan this morning. The newspaper Asahi Shimbun is Gu Kailai has confessed to the murder of Neil Heywood and will be formally charged with it soon. According to the article, she described her motive as his threat to expose massive embezzlement on her part and the focus of the investigation into Bo has switched to whether he was accessory to the murder or merely the cover-up afterward.

In other news, Cambodia has rejected China's extradition request for Patrick Villers, the French architect also linked to Gu. Apparently, the French government put pressure on not to hand him over without clear evidence of wrongdoing.

A Reuters report from Wednesday states that the Frenchman Devillers has gone to China of his own free will, to give evidence in exchange for "certain guarantees", most likely immunity from prosecution in relation to whatever dirty dealings Bo/Gu had been involved in. We may see a verdict in the next month of so after all.

Originally Posted by smartascarrots

A Reuters report from Wednesday states that the Frenchman Devillers has gone to China of his own free will, to give evidence in exchange for "certain guarantees", most likely immunity from prosecution in relation to whatever dirty dealings Bo/Gu had been involved in. We may see a verdict in the next month of so after all.

Interesting news carrots, though not unexpected this case has to be closed before October, I imagine Devillers was offered quite a package

Carrots, you seem to be very well informed about what is going on in China and the surrounding region.
What do you make of the latest developments in North Korea (Army chief sacked and Kim Junior made new commander of the army)?
I always assumed that the Kims (except for the first one) were merely public figureheads and the real power layed with some faceless generals and civil servants. Could it be an attempt by the Kim family to take power away from the real leaders of NK?
Maybe a first step towards reforms?

Also, today there was the news on the Beep that in China the wife, Gu Kailai, of the ousted mayor of Chongqing, Bo Xilai, has officially been charged with murder. I only see one possible outcome for her: a needle in the arm or a bullet in the head. Her husband will probably spend the rest of his life in some labour camp for being an associate, if he doesn´t get the same treatment.

Originally Posted by Walther

Carrots, you seem to be very well informed about what is going on in China and the surrounding region.
What do you make of the latest developments in North Korea (Army chief sacked and Kim Junior made new commander of the army)?
I always assumed that the Kims (except for the first one) were merely public figureheads and the real power layed with some faceless generals and civil servants. Could it be an attempt by the Kim family to take power away from the real leaders of NK?
Maybe a first step towards reforms?

Well, I’d base my conclusions on the assumption that the DPRK leadership is as faction-riven as the PRC’s and with broadly similar rationales as the CCP of the 60s and 70s. I think Kim Tertius is a figurehead, lending dynastic legitimacy to a leadership faction, and that what we’ve seen is a very discreet coup.

Despite the rhetoric directed against them, the leadership have shown themselves to be highly rational actors when in pursuit of their ultimate strategic aim of regime survival. Playing the nutjobs for diplomatic leverage or domestic consumption has been one of their tools and they’ve managed to judge it nicely, going by the fact that nobody’s panicked enough to stamp them flat over it. The PRC have been putting subtle pressure on them to stop being such a regional pain in the arse and their cajoling/example might finally be paying off. I don’t expect anything quite so dramatic as a ‘Berlin Wall’ moment, more a ‘Reform and Opening’ transition.

Originally Posted by Walther

Also, today there was the news on the Beep that in China the wife, Gu Kailai, of the ousted mayor of Chongqing, Bo Xilai, has officially been charged with murder. I only see one possible outcome for her: a needle in the arm or a bullet in the head. Her husband will probably spend the rest of his life in some labour camp for being an associate, if he doesn´t get the same treatment.

Gu’s pretty much had it, since the narrative being presented here seems to be that Heywood’s threat to unseat her son ‘unsexed her here’ and prompted the murder plot. She’s been denuded of any connections she might have had; Bo’s distanced himself from her her in the interview I mentioned above by publically announcing that they were separated and he’d planned divorce; and there’s nothing the public like better than the execution of a highly-connected Red noble for corruption. She’s toast.

Bo, on the other hand, may possibly just squeak by with his freedom as the price to be paid for avoiding another intra-Party civil war. I’m less than confident about that outcome and doubt he’ll retain any influence after the ma-hoosive embarrassment and turmoil he’s caused. Let loose he could be a rallying point for random troublemaking leftists, so a criminal conviction or even prolonged extrajudicial house arrest a la Zhao Ziyang isn’t out of the question.

Combat indicators in the case are that the trials of Gu and Zhang (her co-accused) are to be held in Hefei, Anhui Province. That’s a Province whose Party has substantial ties to both the Central Committee (Zhang Baoshun, Provincial Party Secretary amongst others) and the People’s Supreme Procuratorate (including Ke Hanmin, Deputy Procurator-General; and Wang Shengjun, Central Committee Member and President of the Supreme People's Court). This would give Party Centre enormous influence over the trial. We’ve also seen his allies and patrons being denuded of power (Zhou Yongkang losing his Public Security portfolio, for example) and a proposal that the Politburo Standing Committee lose two places, reducing the chances of a leftist-leaning awkward squad remaining to throw a spanner in the works.

An afterthought occurred to me over the charges being pressed against Gu: the fact that they have been indicates that consensus has been reached over how the affair should be dealt with. As her fate and Bo's are inextricably intertwined, that suggests a decision has been made on him too.

We'll know more about that when it's announced if action will be taken against him under State criminal law or under Party regulations. As the shuanggui link above indicates, Party discipline is an extrajudicial but not unregulated form of law applied to Party members only and the consequences can be more severe than they would be under the criminal code. The major exception is that Party regulations don't allow for a death penalty themselves, requiring crimes of that magnitude to result in expulsion and handing over to the State criminal justice system for trial and punishment. If Bo's charged with offences relating to corruption only, he could be detained at the discretion of the CCDI in varying degrees of exile and comfort rather than being charged and tried under criminal law.

Further to the above, the US-based dissident news organisation Duowei has reported leaked information that Bo is to be tried by the judicial system and not Party disciplinary bodies. Duowei is in many respects very much rumour-based but it and similar organisations do get used by PRC leadership to ease information into the public domain that would be politically-unacceptable to release through official sources.

Thar she blows! Gu's trial date set for next Thursday and the charge one of 'intentional homicide - as opposed, presumably, to unintentional homicide. Well, we wouldn't expect the BBC to understand the English language, now would we?

Nothing on this in China Daily yet (which is a good weathervane for what the leadership want foreigners to see), but I did come across this little snippet. Bo's arch-rival demonstrating close ties with the military in a media controlled by Party Centre and only a matter of weeks before the Party Congress? Things that make you go, 'hmmmm....'