- 23-01-2012, 19:22 #11
- Join Date
- Aug 2006
- In the land of the free and the moose
Not if they don't go to sea they don't.
Seriously though just claiming they have is enough for a short period. But people believe that you can just chuck a few mines and it will be fine. The straits is a narrow piece of water but more importantly it is in Omans territorial waters. If the Iranians do mine they in effect declare war on their one "friend" in the area. Plus the GCC nations defence agreements kick in and they end up with the western side of the Gulf having a reason to spread some love and joy eastwards. And we haven't even talked about the rest of the world.
Closing the Straights is the easy bit. It is keeping them closed that is harder. We have good mine warfare capabilities here right now and could quickly clear the straights.
The bit that worries is the uncontrolled lunatic lot that sit in power. Who knows what they would do. If they start firing missiles at tankers it is going to be very bloody, not just in supply lines cut but the environmental damage will be huge.
Even China has dropped hints that the Iranians should think twice. Thats like Keith Richards telling to lay off the booze and fags.All complaints to be sent to /dev/null
It came off in me hand chief!
If I had wanted to burn, collect sand in everything I own, overheat, run around, shoot things with something less than 4.5inch caliber, wear green/sand coloured baggy outfits, live more than 16m above Sea Level I would have joined the Army.
- 23-01-2012, 19:45 #12
Does anyone have a resource/Link that shows Iran's allies etc, to weigh up the counter arguement,
Although with the IAEA visit due I get the impression Iran are giving them the run around
"The Agency team is going to Iran in a constructive spirit, and we trust that Iran will work with us in that same spirit," Yukiya Amano, Director General of the Vienna-based agency, said in a statement.
IAEA aims to resolve substantive issues in Iran | Reuters
- 23-01-2012, 20:42 #13
- Join Date
- Dec 2004
- A padded cell
There are a lot of open source articles regarding these issues:
US-Iranian Confrontation at Sea
Iranian Mining of the Strait of Hormuz – Plausibility and Key Considerations
A list of vessels attacked during the tanker war
THE TANKER WAR AND THE LESSONS OF NAVAL CONFLICT
Expansion of the tanker war in the Gulf to include Western navies....
- 23-01-2012, 20:52 #14
- 23-01-2012, 20:58 #15
It's not just what's on the surface that interests me, but what is lurking below. Those sun dodgers tend to lurk in places where they are not wanted, listening to and maybe watching what dinnerjackets boys are up to. They could of course disembark a few pax should the need arise....
- 23-01-2012, 21:00 #16
- 24-01-2012, 10:44 #17
- 24-01-2012, 10:46 #18
- Join Date
- Nov 2007
The THREAT of minelaying can cause a lot of disruption even without any real mines (like the one that damaged USS Tripoli way back). In 1956 after the Suez excitement Nasser announced that he had mined the Gulk of Suez. We had no minesweeprs East of Suez at that time so had to send some round the Cape of Good Hope which at 16K max flat out took time. Fortunately as he had blocked the canal nobody else was immediately more inconvenienced. After a lot of grubbing about with various sorts of sweeps (this was before minhunting sonar) it was agreed that the whiole thing had been a bluff and he hadn't actually laid any mines in the first place. But he MIGHT have.
Proving the negative, given that mines can have all sorts of complicated logic in their triggers let alone delays and ship counts, can be laborious.Dr Johnson: 'Any man thinks less of himself for not having been a soldier, or not having been to sea.'
Thiomas Babington Macaulay, quoted by Admiral of the Fleet Lord Fisher of Kilverstone: 'Moderation in war is imbecility!'
Douglas MacArthur: 'There is no substitute for Victory!'
- 24-01-2012, 10:53 #19
Well, the Guardian reported today that in US Forces wargaming the guys with the BFO war canoes lost out to swarm tactics coming from various inlets, Russian Kilo class submarines laying mines, and various land based short-sea skimmers overloading the defences. Apparently, there are only two major channels for the majority of tankers to use.
I am not a military genius by any stretch of the imagination, but you would need more than 15,000 US forces in the area consisting of 2 brigades plus an aviation unit to sub due those inlets and other launch points. To boot, any attack on Iranian forces would have to be of the shock and awe delived concurrently with overwhelming those inlands and neutralising the Kilos.
So when I read the comments above about the embargo starting later this year, my thought is that time is needed for a build up of assets. Do you seriously think anyone gives a flying feck about Greece? In addition, the border between Afghanistan and Iran would also have to be bolstered.
Final thought is that UK and France might need time to re-equip with appropriate ordinance.
- 24-01-2012, 11:48 #20
Iran escalation 'could see UK forces sent to Gulf'"Always mystify, mislead and surprise the enemy." - General Thomas J. "Stonewall" Jackson
"All warfare is based on deception." - Sun Tzu